Last week we went 1-2 with our picks. We correctly had Stanford covering the 10 point spread (although we did NOT expect the drubbing USC received) while missing on the over/under as well as the pick of the week. COME ON AUBURN! GET IT TOGETHER!
This week we take a look at a couple California teams as they head to the heat (don't worry, it's a dry heat) to play in Arizona. We will analyze USC's matchup both against the spread and over/under, as well as UCLA facing Arizona in the Pick of the Week. Hopefully Josh Rosen will throw lots of picks this week.
USC -5.5 at Arizona State
USC: 2-1 ATS
Arizona State: 0-3 ATS
Key Stat: Cody Kessler has the Trojans 3rd nationally in passing efficiency at 197.14.
As if the Arizona weather isn't hot enough, both teams should be feeling immense pressure Saturday as USC and Arizona State limp into this matching trying to pick up the pieces of their dreams. Expect USC to come out alive and firing following their let down 41-31 loss. Tre Madden looks to be a go, but even if he isn't the plethora of USC tailbacks should be able to handle an Arizona State defense that ranks outside the Top 50 nationally. A lot has been said of Wilcox's Charmin-soft defense, but that shouldn't matter this weekend. Arizona State is overrated by the public and, while 5.5 is a big number for a team that looked as flat as USC, is probably the wrong side of this line.
Verdict: USC -5.5
OVER/UNDER: USC at Arizona State +/- 63.5
USC: 2-1 +/-
Arizona State: 0-3 +/-
Key Stat: Any statistic you can find on Kevin Hogan from last Saturday. The Trojan defense made him look like Peyton Manning.
This one is simple. USC can score and Arizona State can't stop anyone. USC defense is going to be more "vanilla" than last week (albino?), so we can expect ASU to put it in the end-zone.
Verdict: Over 63.5
PICK OF THE WEEK: UCLA -4.5 at Arizona
UCLA: 1-1-1 ATS
Arizona: 2-1 ATS
Key Stat: Josh Rosen's 2015 QBR is 51.5
Each team is undefeated and neither has dominated ATS. UCLA took last year's matchup in Los Angeles 17-7, but don't expect this game to be a walk in the park. Arizona is getting better and better, and Anu Solomon is leading Arizona to the nation's 3rd highest scoring offense. Meanwhile, after a hot start, Josh Rosen has been playing poor. His total QBR for the season is 51.5, and considering after week one it was in the 90s, he has been a below average quarterback since. Mix that with this being not only his first Pac 12 start ever, but his first road game as well. Arizona is the home dog and the safer choice.
Verdict: Arizona +4