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2015 USC Football: Pac-12 Championship Advanced Stats Preview

Big rings on the line in Santa Clara

Harry How/Getty Images

You should know the drill by now. Stats by Bill Connelly, glossary here.

USC Offense vs Stanford Defense

USC Offense Stanford Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Overall Explosiveness IsoPPP 1.31 43 1.31 91
Efficiency Success Rate 44.8% 31 41.1% 66
Field Position Avg. FP 28.4 102 25.1 4
Finishing Drives Pts per trip in 40 5.4 13 4.48 48
Rushing Rushing S&P+ 108.5 41 104.6 50
Rushing Success Rate 45.1% 39 39.0% 41
Rushing IsoPPP 1.09 55 1.29 122
Passing Passing S&P+ 115 31 99.4 65
Passing Success Rate 44.5% 35 43.2% 92
Passing IsoPPP 1.52 54 1.33 25
Standard Downs Standard Downs S&P+ 109.2 40 102.3 54
Stadard Downs Success Rate 50.5% 28 44.6% 52
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.11 61 1.18 98
Passing Downs Passing Downs S&P+ 115.4 36 105 56
Passing Downs Success Rate 31.3% 60 32.4% 87
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.08 8 1.77 70
Havoc Rate 15.0% 85

Stanford Offense vs USC Defense

Stanford Offense USC Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Overall Explosiveness IsoPPP 1.2 97 1.26 73
Efficiency Success Rate 51.2% 2 42.4% 75
Field Position Avg. FP 32.6 22 29 54
Finishing Drives Pts per trip in 40 5.61 5 4.29 37
Rushing Rushing S&P+ 114 24 114.3 26
Rushing Success Rate 52.1% 5 41.8% 68
Rushing IsoPPP 0.96 110 1.05 57
Passing Passing S&P+ 131.8 7 106.4 45
Passing Success Rate 50.0% 6 43% 89
Passing IsoPPP 1.58 33 1.45 62
Standard Downs Standard Downs S&P+ 119.2 14 107.8 37
Stadard Downs Success Rate 56.0% 3 45.4% 58
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.09 75 1.19 100
Passing Downs Passing Downs S&P+ 119.3 28 114.2 27
Passing Downs Success Rate 37.2% 18 35.5% 111
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.71 82 1.47 4
Havoc Rate 15.7% 66

It's pretty simple. If USC can some how limit Stanford's efficiency... ok you can stop laughing now. That's the chance, they've had the benefit of having faced this team once so hopefully Wilcox learned some things from the previous matchup. If they can force Hogan into longer down and distances they'll have a shot. Stanford did pick on Iman Marshall in the first game but it'll be intriguing to see if Marshall can carry over his performance from the UCLA game.

Offensively for USC the team has regressed a bit under Helton as it's gone to a more conservative approach with a run first mentality. Many USC fans questioned why they abandoned the run in the 1st matchup but I'm sure you won't see that today. This is a run first team now that simply asks Kessler to manage and not make mistakes.

S&P+ likes Stanford by two which means USC is beating the spread. I'm gonna call my shot (and drinking the Helton cool-aid) and say USC is going to the Rose Bowl and wins by a score of 42-38 lead by the rushing attack of Justin Davis and Ronald Jones II.