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You should know the drill by now. Stats by Bill Connelly, glossary here.
USC Offense vs Stanford Defense
| USC Offense | Stanford Defense | |||||
| Category | Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | ||
| Overall | Explosiveness | IsoPPP | 1.31 | 43 | 1.31 | 91 |
| Efficiency | Success Rate | 44.8% | 31 | 41.1% | 66 | |
| Field Position | Avg. FP | 28.4 | 102 | 25.1 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | Pts per trip in 40 | 5.4 | 13 | 4.48 | 48 | |
| Rushing | Rushing S&P+ | 108.5 | 41 | 104.6 | 50 | |
| Rushing Success Rate | 45.1% | 39 | 39.0% | 41 | ||
| Rushing IsoPPP | 1.09 | 55 | 1.29 | 122 | ||
| Passing | Passing S&P+ | 115 | 31 | 99.4 | 65 | |
| Passing Success Rate | 44.5% | 35 | 43.2% | 92 | ||
| Passing IsoPPP | 1.52 | 54 | 1.33 | 25 | ||
| Standard Downs | Standard Downs S&P+ | 109.2 | 40 | 102.3 | 54 | |
| Stadard Downs Success Rate | 50.5% | 28 | 44.6% | 52 | ||
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.11 | 61 | 1.18 | 98 | ||
| Passing Downs | Passing Downs S&P+ | 115.4 | 36 | 105 | 56 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 31.3% | 60 | 32.4% | 87 | ||
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.08 | 8 | 1.77 | 70 | ||
| Havoc Rate | 15.0% | 85 | ||||
Stanford Offense vs USC Defense
| Stanford Offense | USC Defense | |||||
| Category | Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | ||
| Overall | Explosiveness | IsoPPP | 1.2 | 97 | 1.26 | 73 |
| Efficiency | Success Rate | 51.2% | 2 | 42.4% | 75 | |
| Field Position | Avg. FP | 32.6 | 22 | 29 | 54 | |
| Finishing Drives | Pts per trip in 40 | 5.61 | 5 | 4.29 | 37 | |
| Rushing | Rushing S&P+ | 114 | 24 | 114.3 | 26 | |
| Rushing Success Rate | 52.1% | 5 | 41.8% | 68 | ||
| Rushing IsoPPP | 0.96 | 110 | 1.05 | 57 | ||
| Passing | Passing S&P+ | 131.8 | 7 | 106.4 | 45 | |
| Passing Success Rate | 50.0% | 6 | 43% | 89 | ||
| Passing IsoPPP | 1.58 | 33 | 1.45 | 62 | ||
| Standard Downs | Standard Downs S&P+ | 119.2 | 14 | 107.8 | 37 | |
| Stadard Downs Success Rate | 56.0% | 3 | 45.4% | 58 | ||
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.09 | 75 | 1.19 | 100 | ||
| Passing Downs | Passing Downs S&P+ | 119.3 | 28 | 114.2 | 27 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 37.2% | 18 | 35.5% | 111 | ||
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.71 | 82 | 1.47 | 4 | ||
| Havoc Rate | 15.7% | 66 | ||||
It's pretty simple. If USC can some how limit Stanford's efficiency... ok you can stop laughing now. That's the chance, they've had the benefit of having faced this team once so hopefully Wilcox learned some things from the previous matchup. If they can force Hogan into longer down and distances they'll have a shot. Stanford did pick on Iman Marshall in the first game but it'll be intriguing to see if Marshall can carry over his performance from the UCLA game.
Offensively for USC the team has regressed a bit under Helton as it's gone to a more conservative approach with a run first mentality. Many USC fans questioned why they abandoned the run in the 1st matchup but I'm sure you won't see that today. This is a run first team now that simply asks Kessler to manage and not make mistakes.
S&P+ likes Stanford by two which means USC is beating the spread. I'm gonna call my shot (and drinking the Helton cool-aid) and say USC is going to the Rose Bowl and wins by a score of 42-38 lead by the rushing attack of Justin Davis and Ronald Jones II.