clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

USC Football 2015: Trojans vs Oregon Ducks Advanced Stats Preview

The USC Trojans control their own destiny but they have a tough test on the road against Oregon. We did deep into the advanced statistics.

Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

You should know the drill by now. Stats by Bill Connelly, glossary here.


USC offense vs Oregon Defense

USC Offense Oregon Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Overall Explosiveness IsoPPP 1.37 21 1.23 60
Efficiency Success Rate 45.2% 29 45.6% 103
Field Position Avg. FP 29.1 91 31.1 100
Finishing Drives Pts per trip in 40 5.28 22 5.01 99
Rushing Rushing S&P+ 112.7 29 88.8 108
Rushing Success Rate 44.4% 49 46.2% 102
Rushing IsoPPP 1.16 21 1.13 87
Passing Passing S&P+ 119.3 22 100.8 62
Passing Success Rate 45.9% 21 45.2% 113
Passing IsoPPP 1.55 51 1.31 22
Standard Downs Standard Downs S&P+ 111.9 29 99.8 66
Standard Downs Success Rate 50.3% 28 48.9% 90
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.17 38 1.12 78
Passing Downs Passing Downs S&P+ 122.8 22 88.8 102
Passing Downs Success Rate 33.1% 47 37.4% 117
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.08 9 1.61 29
Havoc Rate 16.0% 61

Oregon Offense vs USC Defense

Oregon Offense USC Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Overall Explosiveness IsoPPP 1.39 12 1.17 25
Efficiency Success Rate 47.2% 20 41.7% 71
Field Position Avg. FP 31.7 30 28.9 50
Finishing Drives Pts per trip in 40 4.98 49 3.91 21
Rushing Rushing S&P+ 128.1 4 116.7 23
Rushing Success Rate 49.9% 12 41.5% 63
Rushing IsoPPP 1.22 12 1 42
Passing Passing S&P+ 116.6 31 109.1 39
Passing Success Rate 43.4% 44 42% 79
Passing IsoPPP 1.68 19 1.33 31
Standard Downs Standard Downs S&P+ 122.1 10 111.8 29
Stadard Downs Success Rate 52.2% 18 45.3% 58
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.25 15 1.08 58
Passing Downs Passing Downs S&P+ 120.9 26 114.5 31
Passing Downs Success Rate 35.3% 30 33.7% 96
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.88 38 1.45 7
Havoc Rate 14.9% 81

This seems like a game Clay Helton should be excited about right? His offense is run heavy and now efficient and the defense seems to be doing a good job of stopping the run. What worries me is that Oregon is very similar to both Stanford and Notre Dame in how well they run the ball and we know very well how that turned out. What doesn't help matters is the fact USC has to replace two MLB in this game with guys that haven't played very much

I'm going to make an assumption and say Vernon Adams has largely to do with Oregon's strength on Passing downs and if USC is unable to flip this it could be a long day for the Trojans.

Vegas is currently favoring the Ducks at -4.5 however S&P+ favors the Trojans by 4.7. I'll say the Trojans pull it out 42-38 behind the committment to the run game and Cody Kessler doing just enough.