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Numbers courtesy of Bill Connelly and make sure you keep the glossary open.
USC Offense vs Colorado Defense
| USC Offense | Colorado Defense | |||||
| Category | Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | ||
| Overall | Explosiveness | IsoPPP | 1.4 | 14 | 1.32 | 87 |
| Efficiency | Success Rate | 45.2% | 30 | 42.9% | 81 | |
| Field Position | Avg. FP | 28.8 | 95 | 30.2 | 79 | |
| Finishing Drives | Pts per trip in 40 | 5.35 | 20 | 4.88 | 89 | |
| Rushing | Rushing S&P+ | 119.7 | 17 | 87.8 | 106 | |
| Rushing Success Rate | 45.0% | 42 | 46.7% | 104 | ||
| Rushing IsoPPP | 1.19 | 19 | 1.14 | 97 | ||
| Passing | Passing S&P+ | 120.7 | 23 | 96.1 | 78 | |
| Passing Success Rate | 45.3% | 30 | 38.8% | 53 | ||
| Passing IsoPPP | 1.6 | 35 | 1.54 | 87 | ||
| Standard Downs | Standard Downs S&P+ | 114.7 | 26 | 89.9 | 104 | |
| Stadard Downs Success Rate | 50.3% | 30 | 49.0% | 88 | ||
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.17 | 33 | 1.15 | 86 | ||
| Passing Downs | Passing Downs S&P+ | 131 | 14 | 95.4 | 79 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.3% | 42 | 29.3% | 56 | ||
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.2 | 3 | 1.94 | 109 | ||
| Havoc Rate | 15.2% | 74 | ||||
Colorado Offense vs USC Defense
| Colorado Offense | USC Defense | |||||
| Category | Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | ||
| Overall | Explosiveness | IsoPPP | 1.1 | 122 | 1.23 | 60 |
| Efficiency | Success Rate | 44.3% | 36 | 41.1% | 66 | |
| Field Position | Avg. FP | 29.8 | 71 | 28 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | Pts per trip in 40 | 4.43 | 94 | 3.9 | 19 | |
| Rushing | Rushing S&P+ | 102.3 | 77 | 117.7 | 23 | |
| Rushing Success Rate | 47.7% | 18 | 41.3% | 62 | ||
| Rushing IsoPPP | 0.91 | 123 | 1.03 | 56 | ||
| Passing | Passing S&P+ | 87.5 | 102 | 109.3 | 40 | |
| Passing Success Rate | 40.6% | 68 | 41% | 70 | ||
| Passing IsoPPP | 1.34 | 100 | 1.42 | 58 | ||
| Standard Downs | Standard Downs S&P+ | 99 | 75 | 113.7 | 29 | |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 52.0% | 20 | 44.7% | 54 | ||
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 0.93 | 125 | 1.12 | 80 | ||
| Passing Downs | Passing Downs S&P+ | 82.8 | 115 | 111.9 | 41 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 25.1% | 111 | 33.1% | 91 | ||
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.99 | 20 | 1.55 | 24 | ||
| Havoc Rate | 14.6% | 85 | ||||
The nicest thing I can say about the Colorado defense is that they're mediocre against the pass. Their offense, on the other hand, actually has a few redeeming qualities! They're pretty efficient, especially in the run game where they rank 18th nationally and illustrates the biggest opportunity to take advantage of the USC defense. Their passing game efficiency is a middle of the pack and their performance on standard downs is ok also. The Buffs can move the ball a little bit and they try to maximize their opportunities by running a ton of plays. The only time they're really explosive is on passing downs which USC actually does a good job of limiting in general.
As for the USC offense, the plan should be to hand the ball to Ronald Jones II and Justin Davis over and over again. Tre Madden will be out with an injury so SC fans might even get to see Aca'Cedric Ware get a little bit of run. I wouldn't be surprised to see USC run the ball around 50 times to limit the effects of playing a short week and in elevation against a team that likes to operate at a breakneck speed. Ideally Cody Kessler won't really need to have much of a game or be called on to do so although he has had success against Colorado in the two years he's played against them.
USC "should" have no problems despite the short week, I don't think they'll cover the spread though given variables listed in the paragraph above. I'll go with a score 42-28 in favor of the Trojans.