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USC Football 2015: USC vs Cal Advanced Stats Preview

It's the Weekender!

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Numbers courtesy of Bill Connelly and keep the glossary open.

USC Offense vs Cal Defense

USC Offense Cal Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Overall Explosiveness IsoPPP 1.39 16 1.15 26
Efficiency Success Rate 47.5% 21 45.4% 104
Field Position Avg. FP 28.1 102 30.5 97
Finishing Drives Pts per trip in 40 5.67 6 4.92 91
Rushing Rushing S&P+ 132.1 6 94.9 83
Rushing Success Rate 50.0% 15 48.1% 114
Rushing IsoPPP 1.09 61 0.93 19
Passing Passing S&P+ 130.6 8 93 92
Passing Success Rate 45.5% 30 42.8% 87
Passing IsoPPP 1.64 27 1.37 49
Standard Downs Standard Downs S&P+ 128 6 89.7 103
Stadard Downs Success Rate 53.4% 15 53.2% 119
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.15 44 1.01 35
Passing Downs Passing Downs S&P+ 139.7 9 111.7 37
Passing Downs Success Rate 33.3% 41 26.7% 34
Passing Downs IsoPPP 2.31 3 1.78 67
Havoc Rate 16.2% 55

Cal Offense vs USC Defense

Cal Offense USC Defense
Category Avg. Rk Avg. Rk
Overall Explosiveness IsoPPP 1.25 78 1.25 68
Efficiency Success Rate 48.6% 12 40.3% 61
Field Position Avg. FP 31.4 35 28.1 49
Finishing Drives Pts per trip in 40 4.73 75 3.8 16
Rushing Rushing S&P+ 123.9 18 105.4 55
Rushing Success Rate 4570.0% 40 44.3% 86
Rushing IsoPPP 1.02 87 1.06 60
Passing Passing S&P+ 125 17 115.1 31
Passing Success Rate 50.6% 9 36% 37
Passing IsoPPP 1.39 87 1.51 80
Standard Downs Standard Downs S&P+ 128.7 17 110.9 35
Stadard Downs Success Rate 39.0% 11 44.7% 51
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.55 109 1.15 90
Passing Downs Passing Downs S&P+ 128.7 17 106.9 51
Passing Downs Success Rate 39.0% 11 30.8% 78
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.55 106 1.56 29
Havoc Rate 14.3% 94

Cal's offense is a little surprising to me. While incredibly efficient, I would've thought they would be more explosive with Goff and his good WRs. The Cal defense is good at limiting big plays but that's about it, all signs point to a shootout and big games from the USC running backs and WRs.

Note the bolded text in the table above, this is the key to the game for USC. If they're able to limit Cal from finishing drives -- which has proven to be a struggle for the Golden Bears -- USC could win this game going away. That being said I don't entirely trust the USC defense. Although Justin Wilcox called a great game against Utah this past weekend and Cam Smith played out of his mind, I still have my doubts. S&P+ says USC wins by 5.5, I'll say USC wins by a touchdown 42-35.