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Numbers courtesy of Bill Connelly and keep the glossary open.
USC Offense vs Utah Defense
| USC Offense | Utah Defense | |||||
| Category | Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | ||
| Overall | Explosiveness | IsoPPP | 1.45 | 9 | 1.1 | 15 |
| Efficiency | Success Rate | 48.0% | 17 | 39.8% | 58 | |
| Field Position | Avg. FP | 27.3 | 110 | 27.8 | 39 | |
| Finishing Drives | Pts per trip in 40 | 5.61 | 10 | 3.44 | 10 | |
| Rushing | Rushing S&P+ | 133.6 | 6 | 127.8 | 15 | |
| Rushing Success Rate | 52.3% | 8 | 40.7% | 55 | ||
| Rushing IsoPPP | 1.14 | 39 | 0.8 | 2 | ||
| Passing | Passing S&P+ | 130.1 | 10 | 110.5 | 39 | |
| Passing Success Rate | 44.8% | 34 | 39.3% | 56 | ||
| Passing IsoPPP | 1.72 | 13 | 1.31 | 27 | ||
| Standard Downs | Standard Downs S&P+ | 136.4 | 2 | 114.3 | 28 | |
| Stadard Downs Success Rate | 56.5% | 5 | 46.0% | 59 | ||
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.19 | 25 | 0.94 | 12 | ||
| Passing Downs | Passing Downs S&P+ | 129.2 | 20 | 112.9 | 47 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 29.0% | 76 | 31.9% | 53 | ||
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.6 | 1 | 1.47 | 117 | ||
| Havoc Rate | 19.1% | 23 | ||||
Utah Offense vs USC Defense
| Utah Offense | USC Defense | |||||
| Category | Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | ||
| Overall | Explosiveness | IsoPPP | 1.22 | 82 | 1.31 | 87 |
| Efficiency | Success Rate | 42.3% | 62 | 40.1% | 60 | |
| Field Position | Avg. FP | 31.9 | 30 | 27.8 | 41 | |
| Finishing Drives | Pts per trip in 40 | 5.76 | 6 | 3.56 | 12 | |
| Rushing | Rushing S&P+ | 123.4 | 23 | 103.7 | 61 | |
| Rushing Success Rate | 40.0% | 90 | 44.1% | 84 | ||
| Rushing IsoPPP | 1.14 | 36 | 1.1 | 74 | ||
| Passing | Passing S&P+ | 121.9 | 19 | 111.3 | 36 | |
| Passing Success Rate | 45% | 32 | 35.6%% | 31 | ||
| Passing IsoPPP | 1.31 | 104 | 1.6 | 103 | ||
| Standard Downs | Standard Downs S&P+ | 124 | 13 | 109.5 | 38 | |
| Stadard Downs Success Rate | 46.5% | 74 | 44.3% | 50 | ||
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.15 | 42 | 1.2 | 102 | ||
| Passing Downs | Passing Downs S&P+ | 112.9 | 47 | 100.1 | 66 | |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 31.9% | 53 | 31.6% | 83 | ||
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.47 | 117 | 1.64 | 40 | ||
| Havoc Rate | 13.3% | 105 | ||||
There are some interesting things the numbers are telling us. Lets start at the top, with an S&P+ rank of 11, USC is the best team Utah has played since Michigan. It's also the most well rounded offense that they've played, both the USC rushing attack-- highlighted by Ronald Jones II who is supposedly getting overdue additional touches-- and passing attack that are the best per S&P+ on Utah's schedule to date. The hope for USC lies with this exact matchup, the USC offense needs to prove it's too powerful for the Utah defense.
Something I'm particularly concerned with given the shuffling of the USC offensive line --Zach Banner now at LT, true freshman Chuma Edoga starting at RT and Toa Lobendahn's 2nd start at C-- is the frequency in which the Utah defense is able to create pressure highlighted by the Havoc Rate. If the offensive line can control this -- I have my doubts -- then USC has a chance.
The numbers match the grumbles coming from fans about the USC defense, the Justin Wilcox era is most likely coming to an end. The defense is incapable of getting pressure, ranking 105th of 128th in the country in Havoc Rate. Utah is going to run Devontae Booker at will against this defense and I'll be stunned if USC slows him down at all. I'm going against the S&P+ prediction of a 5 or 6 point USC win and say Utah wins in a shootout -- because there is no other option with this USC defense -- by a final score of 42-38.