My Favorite 5 - Week One

By Ben Johnson - Special to SBNation.com

The daytime temperatures are still as hot as a chilly-pepper, but the daylight hours are getting shorter and there is even a hint of crispness in the early morning hours. It must be football season, finally.

My Favorite 5 is a weekly article I will be running here on the SBNation family of college sports blogs, Conquest Chronicles in particular.

It will feature a look at my four all-time favorite college football programs (USC, Michigan, Arkansas and Boise State) as well as a wildcard section that will feature a kaleidoscopic look across the country to focus your observations while partaking in this wild weekly ride we call college football.

College football covers the spectrum of passions in terms of fandom, but few venture beyond the edges like I do throughout the fall.

I prefer to watch the action at home in the comfort of my office, where I have three TV's stationed to catch all the action, pouring over all the stats I can find to determine who the best of the best is across the country.

Between the three televisions and two notebook computers I will keep you updated on all the action, including who should really be at the top of the polls, as well as leading the Heisman, according to the statistical indexes.

Inside my own personal sports bar as I can be found watching three games simulataneously amid the sweet aroma of smoked turkey, salmon, prime rib or brisket on the meat side, baked potato, steamed vegetables, and fresh strawberry or blackberry margaritas on the fruit and vegetable side, with plenty of chips, salsa and pasta to keep me peppered throughout the day.

And of course the beer and wine will be flowing - there is nothing like college football in the fall.

So in the words of the great Keith Jackson, let's get on with it shall we?

1. The USC Trojans Preview vs Hawai'i:

Oregon and UCLA played in the inaugural PAC-12 championship game last year in Eugene, but most college football pundits felt that USC was the best team overall, and rightly so.

After a gut-wrenching overtime loss versus Stanford in late October, in which head Lane Kiffin argued repeatedly with the always brutally bad PAC-12 Conference officiating crew given there was still one second remaining on the clock when Marquise Lee ran out of bounds with the Trojans in field goal range in Stanford territory (and he was right), the Trojans rebounded to restore their order of dominance in the conference by defeating Oregon and UCLA to close the season by a combined score of 88-35.

Oregon, who dominated a Stanford program that barely beat the Trojans in overtime, failed to put away a punchless UCLA program inspired by the end of the slick Rick era, in Autzen Stadium no less, would have likely found the same similar misfortune in December versus the Trojans in the same venerable stadium as they did in mid November, assuming the Trojans would have been eligible to play in last years PAC-12 title tilt.

At one point, with the fans streaming out of Autzen late in the third quarter, the Trojans led 38-14 versus a team that had a 21-game home winning streak and was still in contention for a possible repeat national championship game return in back-to-back seasons.

USC was red hot to close the season!

One could make a very reasonable assessment that Oregon's meteoric rise has been the result of USC's short two-year NCAA bowl ban along with major scholarship reductions, but the Men of Troy have recovered nicely.

Look for the Trojans on the streets of Miami during the first week of January in 2013!

Trojan Tale of the Tape:

Previewing the Hawai'i Warriors:

For any coach in college football, the first game of the season is always one of nervous anxiety due to the unknowns, but for head coach Norm Chow, a former Trojan assistant coach during the glory days of the dominating BCS era under Pete Carroll, it must be a day he has long anticipated.

The Warriors have always hung their hat on offense with a succession of quarterbacks including Tommy Chang, Colt Brennan and last years incumbant Bryant Moniz, who happen to be the three all-time career passing leaders in Warrior history.

Moniz won many of my weekly KSI Index challenges for quarterbacks with eye-popping numbers during 2010 and 2011 when I first began to become addicted to sports Sabermetrics, but Chang, Brennan and Moniz are nowhere to be found at present.

According to Phil Steele Magazine, the projected starter appears to be David Graves, but whoever lines up under center will have a plethora of receivers to throw to.

Jeremiah Ostrowski (SR) and Billy Ray Stutzmann (JR), one of four receiving tandems to both finish in the Top-30 of the KSI Ratings Index for returning wide receivers in 2012, are the primary playmakers for Hawai'i.

They joined Woods (#3) and Lee (#9) of USC, Chris Givens (#4) and Michael Companaro (#30) of Wake Forest, Sammy Watkins (#7) and DeAndre Hopkins (#27) of Clemson, and Stedman Bailey (#6) and Tavon Austin (#12) of West Virginia so they are in elite company and bring a stiff test to a developing Trojan defense.

It will be interesting to see if the Warriors run the vaunted BYU offense where Chow created his branding identity as an offensive guru, or if he will continue the hybrid Run-and-Shoot offense that Mouse Davis and June Jones ran so successfully bringing the program into the national spotlight.

It may not matter given the Warriors only have 6 starters returning on offense, and even less on defense (4), so this appears to be a building year on the surface.

Considering this is Chow's debut season, much remains to be seen in terms of the type of offense or defensive schemes that will be established or how the personnel, recruited largely by Greg McMackin and June Jones, will be utilized.

Prediction: With only 4 returning starters on defense for Hawai'i playing in a brand new scheme and system, under new coaches against a Trojan offense that may go down as the most prolific ever in college football?

Trojans in a rout, 55-17, and the 17 is a tip of the hat given my respect for Norm Chow.

2. The Michigan Preview vs Alabama:

This is the game of the day on opening weekend, much like the LSU-Oregon affair last year in Jerry World's bananza of a stadium in Arlington, Texas.

It is a huge game for Michigan and much of the Big-Ten, if not the rest of the country as we are all beginning to tire of hearing the SEC bandwagon blasting over the airwaves.

If the Wolverines can somehow beat both Alabama and Notre Dame in the month of September and survive the mid-season trap games versus Michigan State and Nebraska on back-to-back weekends in October, you have to like their chances of running the table considering the only thing that stands between Michigan and a New Years date in Miami, potentially with USC, is a manageable schedule and Ohio State to close the season.

Michigan is playing a Top-5 schedule in terms of difficulty, but they are the only team among this list of five that has the experience and depth to handle the task.

According to Phil Steele Magazine, the most valid statistical reference in the industry, Notre Dame heads this list followed by 2. Ole Miss, 3. Iowa State, 4. Michigan, 5. Florida, 6. Washington, 7. Baylor, 8. Texas A&M, 9. Miami (FL) and 10. Kentucky.

I can't see Notre Dame winning more than 9 games at best. Florida is a maybe with their talent base, but the Gators have to play at Texas A&M, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Florida State, as well as the Cocktail game against Georgia, as well as hosting LSU, South Carolina and Missouri.

With a two headed inexperienced monster of an issue at quarterback Florida will not be able to handle that kind of schedule, leaving Michigan as the only team within that Top-10 list that can handle a monster schedule.

That maybe easier said than done with Alabama, Notre Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State looming on the horizon, as well as little brother Sparty, who has now won four straight in the in-state rivalry series.

However, Michigan football is back under Head Coach Brady Hoke and with 50 letterman returning who are all-in under the direction of offensive coordinator Al Borges and defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, Michigan is the one team I am predicting that can both survive and take advantage of a top-tier schedule.

But getting by the Tide will be no easy task.

Word on the street is that Denard Robinson took to heart the coaching staff's request to improve his throwing fundamentals and techniques, and if Robinson can make the jump to the upper tier of college football quarterbacks, Mattison will provide enough defense for Michigan to get to Miami and the BCS title game.

To say this is a huge game on opening weekend is a tremendous understatement. The winner gets a big boost, the loser has their backs against the BCS wall, all but eliminated from the national championship picture.

Wolverine Tale of the Tape:

About The Tide:

The Crimson Tide is the 900 pound gorilla in the living room that can erase Michigan's quest for the title. Although the Tide have won two of the last three BCS championship games, they lost a ton of production on both sides of the ball this off-season.

However, the cupboards are not exactly bare with 6 starters on offense and five on defense returning for a program that has won four of their last 5 bowl games, three of them being of the BCS variety. If this game was in Tuscaloosa, Michigan wouldn't stand a chance given Nick Saban's 88-19 record at home, but arguably the best football coach in the country is a meager 12-8 in neutral site games during his career.

Plus Saban's defense, which he learned while working with Don James, the former Husky legendary coach, is difficult to learn without the proper reps or experience base, especially versus a team running an option or spread hybrid offense or an offense the does a lot of shifts with motion.

Both can be found within the Al Borges scheme, but Robinson's development as a passer prevented much of the shifts and motions a year ago. I am anxious to see his development in this department.

This is the major question going into this game. If Robinson has progressed, advantage Michigan!

SEC Hype: Fact or Fiction?

You've heard it before, the hype of the SEC as voiced by our supposed neutral national media (ESECPN), but Alabama misses Florida, Georgia, Vandy and South Carolina this year on the SEC schedule, so the next time you hear the hype of the best conference in the country, just understand all these teams do not play each other year in-year out.

You can't really call it the toughest conference when the toughest teams do not play each other can you?

Compare the Tide's schedule and overall strength of schedule rating of 30th with Ole Miss (#2) or Kentucky (#10).

Ole Miss misses Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina and Florida, but must play Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, Arkansas, Georgia, Vanderbilt, LSU and Mississippi State.

Kentucky misses Mississippi, Georgia, Vandy and Texas A&M, but must play Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Tennessee.

The team in the SEC that really makes out like a bandit this year is Georgia.

They miss Texas A&M, Alabama, LSU and Arkansas, three of the Top-5 teams nationally a year ago.

Like the potential falsity of Lance Armstrong's string of 7 straight titles, the SEC is no different. Enter in the fact most of the SEC, like Alabama, never leaves the footprint of the south.

Alabama travels to Arlington for a date with Michigan and away games versus Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee and LSU...that's only 5 travel dates folks with only Missouri being a marginally non-southern regional contest.

So you have a historically fabled program that will play 8 home games, two against Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic, and five away games, never traveling farther than a two hour plane flight, missing the heart of the SEC schedule in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, yet will be promoted as if they are playing this monster juggernaut of a schedule.

Ditto for Georgia!

As if Missouri and Texas A&M add to the myth of the SEC, the Big-12 announced yesterday how happy they are to replace the Aggies and Tigers with two annually ranked programs on the rise in West Virginia and TCU.

In comparison, look for USC to be demonized by their so called lack of strength found within the PAC-12 Conference, even though Oregon, Stanford and USC (prevented by NCAA sanctions) were all Top-10 teams last year to close the season

Here is a quick Trojan comparison to Alabama.

1. Barkely and crew will miss the two bottom dwellers of the PAC-12 over the past two seasons in Oregon State and Washington State, yet travel 3,000 miles cross country to play an improving Syracuse program.

2. They travel to Stanford to play a program as successful as any in the last four years, which has beaten them four of the last 5 seasons.

3. They get a Utah program that blitzed Alabama in the Sugar Bowl several years ago (twice finishing undefeated in the last decade, with the #3 RB according to the KSI Index Rating in John White).

4. They play one of the best quarterbacks in the country (Keith Price - 10th in the KSI Index Rating for QB's) on the lake in Seattle.

5. They must tackle Rich Rodriguez' offensively rich program in Arizona in Tucson!

6. If the season goes to form, they will likely get Oregon twice, just as Alabama and LSU hooked up twice last season.

So I ask you, who is playing the tougher schedule, especially when all those teams in the SEC are playing Oregon-esque non-conference schedules (Arkansas State and Tennessee Tech) and avoiding many of the juggernauts of the conference?

There are no Western Kentucky's and Florida Atlantic's to be found on the Trojan schedule, but you will see them on Alabama's schedule.

The SEC really survives and gains its power from the strength of four programs - LSU, Florida, Alabama and Auburn, but what have Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Arkansas or Kentucky accomplished in the last decade that Utah, Stanford, Oregon, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, West Virginia, Boise State, TCU and a host of others hasn't?

Oregon beat Tennessee 45-10 in 2010, Boise State beat Georgia last year 35-21, USC beat Arkansas in back-to-back seasons, blitzing them both times even though the Hogs could be heard saying on national television the USC was just another SEC team.

The Trojans put up 70 on the Hogs!

Even the LSU-Oregon affair a year ago was a case of the Tigers dominating the turnover department. That game was actually moving in Oregon's direction until the barrage of turnovers early in the third quarter, yet the media portrayed the game as a rout for LSU.

The Oregon-Auburn title game was as good as it gets, coming down to a freak tackle and long run that resulted in a game ending field goal to break the tie.

Is that really as dominating as the media portrays?

Yes, LSU, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Georgia and South Carolina are elite programs but they dodge the bulk of the conference on an annual basis, generally play 8 home games, two against Sun-Belt, C-USA or Directional-U opponents (or worse) and yet dodge each other while collecting constant raves and reviews by our national media regarding how tough it is to play their schedule.

So is the strength and power of the SEC a question of myth or reality, especially given the fraudulent nature of the polling system, which is based on a 50-year traditional hierarchy and personal bias, rife with conflicts of interest on the coaching and SID side of the equation, in addition to being woefully ill informed because coaches and SID's do not watch all the games?

Don't drink the Kool-aid folks.

See it for what it is.

Game Prediction: In a wild upset that will spring Michigan forward, Wolverines 27 - Alabama 21.

3. The Arkansas Preview vs Jacksonville State

This off-season was one of the most tumultuous in college football history given what happened at Penn State and Arkansas. The Hogs were primed for a national championship run coming off an 11-2 season where they were last seen beating up on a one dimensional Kansas State offense, 29-16 in the Cotton Bowl.

But Arkansas is still a distant third in the SEC behind LSU and Alabama, especially on the defensive side of the equation.

The three premier programs in the SEC who have won the bulk of the BCS national championships for the conference in their decade of dominance are LSU, Alabama and Florida. Everyone else is about even with the other elite programs across the country...Arkansas included!

One thing is a certainty for the Hogs.

The offense will not skip much of a beat with Tyler Wilson returning to lead the offense. You have to respect a guy who got pelted last year versus LSU and the Tide so many times you wondered if his head was actually inside that helmet of his, which was seen flying through the air on many occasions.

He flat out got pounded, yet hung in the pocket when many others would have been rattled. That was impressive!

Plus the fact that he was one of two Razorback teammates that jumped up out of the monumental team meeting with Arkansas AD Jeff Long when Bobby Petrino was fired and told the entire roster in attendance to sit their ass down when they bolted to the door after Long's announcement!

That's leadership and toughness, which is what I expect to see out of Arkansas' offense, especially in the early going when they play a couple of cupcakes in Jacksonville State and UL-Monroe to open the season, both at home, although the second game is in Little Rock.

In combination with Knile Davis, who was injured all of last season, I look for USC, West Virginia, Arkansas, Michigan, Florida State, Oregon and Clemson to have the most prolific offenses in the country with multiple targets to keep the defense's from stacking the box.

Both Wilson and Davis scored high in my KSI Index Rating for quarterbacks and running backs. Both finished 6th in each category, for Davis, we utilized his 2010 stats, which would have enabled him to finish behind Rex Burkhead of Nebraska and Stephan Taylor of Stanford in 2011.

Wisconsin's run oriented offense allowed Monte Ball to run away with the Pre-Season KSI Index Rating for running backs, but Ball has nothing on Davis since Davis does his dancing inside the SEC West, most noted for the defensive prowess of the front four.

Davis may in fact be the best back in the country, which is really going to open up the passing lanes for Tyler Wilson and that vaunted offense.

Bobby Petrino's brother, Paul, will call the offense and you can bet your bottom dollar the two will confer back and forth and share film overviews, so Bobby Petrino will still have an influence on that offense.

The major question, similar to both USC and Michigan, is the defense, and at present, the defense is nowhere near the elite level in the SEC, let alone the rest of the country.

The Razorback offense bailed the defense out on multiple occasions last season and I don't expect much of a change on that side of the ball this year, but it will make for great TV for college football purists.

Arkansas Tale of the Tape:

The Hogs will need to finish up similar to Oklahoma State last year on defense; a defense that bent a lot but created turnovers and simply outscored opponents on offense.

But Oklahoma State made its run last year...can the Hogs make a similar run inside the SEC West? With Petrino, maybe...with John L. Smith, I'm not so sure.

I won't take the time to preview Jacksonville State since I find it embarrassing that they are even on the Hogs schedule, although it was Jacksonville State that sent Ole Miss spiraling in Jeremiah Masoli's debut a couple seasons ago, but this Razorback offense is much stronger than the one Masoli inherited.

This one will be a yawner unless the John L. Smith factor comes into play and the coaches end up screwing it up.

Prediction: Hogs 62 - Jacksonville State 10.

4. The Boise State Preview vs Michigan State:

The state of Michigan will be wild on opening weekend with the Wolverines facing off with Alabama and the Spartans hosting Boise State. This will be the fourth year in a row that Boise is taking on a college football giant and three of the four have been on the road to begin the season.

This is a program that wins. This is a program that out prepares every program in the country given Boise doesn't have the 4 and five star recruits when they fly in to Boise as freshman, but by the time they leave, they are men among boys.

Some day I hope to see USC and Boise, or LSU and Boise lock horns as it will finally put to rest this is not just a good team that plays in a weak conference.

Kellen Moore is gone, but Boise has been here before after the 2006 Orange Bowl and their epic come back against the Sooners on national television.

They had stars that graduated then, just as they are looking to replace last years crop of seniors which included Moore and 1st Round draft pick Doug Martin, who has seemingly boosted Tampa Bays running attack so far in the NFL pre-season.

Boise may in fact lose this opening game due to inexperience, but there are enough winners on the Bronco sideline who will make a game of it, especially within the offensive line.

Look for Boise to return to multiple shifts, motions and a plethora of trick plays as the coaching staff will try to out coach opposing defenses while bringing the offense together as the season progresses.

This may in fact be the best game of the day in college football - Don't miss it, it is must see TV!

Boise State Tale of the Tape:

Prediction: Too much youth and inexperience for Boise...Michigan State 24 - Boise 17.