FanPost

Revisiting OOC schedule analysis

Bumped...this is a great breakdown of the records! - Paragon

Back in August, I took a look at OOC scheduling and its impact on overall conference record and perception. I predicted that SEC will have a better overall record due to its scheduling OOC policies.

Now its time to revisit and see how the conferences have actually performed.

This was my prediction for overall conference record and average W/L record(slightly different from the original version due to omission of conference championship games and Cinci @ Hawaii matchup).

W L AV.W AV.L W%
Big Ten 77.25 54.75 7.02 4.98 0.585
SEC 85.25 60.75 7.10 5.06 0.584
Big-12 84.75 61.25 7.06 5.10 0.580
Big East 55.25 41.75 6.91 5.22 0.570
ACC 80.75 65.25 6.73 5.44 0.553
Pac-10 64.25 56.75 6.43 5.68 0.531

Here is the actual outcome:

W L AV.W AV.L W% Delta
Big-12 87 59 7.25 4.92 0.596 1.54%
SEC 86 60 7.17 5.00 0.589 0.51%
ACC 86 60 7.17 5.00 0.589 3.60%
Big East 57 40 7.13 5.00 0.588 1.80%
Big Ten 76 56 6.91 5.09 0.576 -0.95%
Pac-10 59 62 5.90 6.20 0.488 -4.34%

The predicted W/L record is very close to actual (except for Pac-10 and ACC). The numbers show what "West Coast / Pac-10" homers have been crying about for a long time - Big-12/SEC pad their schedules with patsies and create an appearance of a tough league. How many SEC teams benefitted from weak OOC scheduling?

Another conclusion (something we knew about for a long time) - Pac-10 sucked this year. The winning percentage delta is -4.34%. The conference ended up with a losing record (only BCS conference to do so). No question about it - Pac-10 was weak this year. However, many media clowns fail to realize that Pac-10 starts with a disadvantage because of the 9th conference game. And even if it performs ok in the OOC games, it will still have a lower winning percentage than SEC or Big-12.

If we sort the conferences by over/unde-rachievement factor (delta), we'd get the following conference rankings:

W L AV.W AV.L W% Delta
ACC 86 60 7.17 5.00 0.589 3.60%
Big East 57 40 7.13 5.00 0.588 1.80%
Big-12 87 59 7.25 4.92 0.596 1.54%
SEC 86 60 7.17 5.00 0.589 0.51%
Big Ten 76 56 6.91 5.09 0.576 -0.95%
Pac-10 59 62 5.90 6.20 0.488 -4.34%

What? ACC is #1? What a joke, right? Nope... Actually a number of computers agree with me. If you take Sagarin's rankings, ACC does come out to be #1. In fact, my rankings are nearly identical to Sagarin's with exception of Big East. Why is ACC #1? They won a few away games vs BCS opponents (including 3-1 vs the SEC in the final weekend) and didn't lose many games that they were supposed to win easily. Pac-10 was hurt by its miserable showing against MWC.

The bottomline, media pundits should pay more attention to the scheduling factor when talking about conference strength. Don't assume SEC and Big-12 are the kings (although B12 was very good this year) just because 10 teams start 4-0. Unfortunately, media isn't very number or analysis savvy so I expect to continue to see more hype and less substance going forward. Especially on CBS.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Conquest Chronicles' writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Conquest Chronicles' writers or editors.