Back once again, it's Under the Hood Lite, our modest version of Burnt Orange Nation's stats-driven game previews. Now that we're a few games into the season, there's a little data to work with, and it allows me to guess at opposition team's tendencies without having to do anything tedious like follow them all season.
(Editorial note: it's not that I intended to drop the weekend in review section permanently, but being out of the country and catching up at work has put a small cramp on my blogging style...)
But enough of the explanations and excuses, and on to the basics:
Team Records
| Washington |
2-2 |
0-1 |
| Syracuse |
W |
42-12 |
| Boise State |
W |
24-10 |
| Ohio State |
L |
33-14 |
| UCLA |
L |
44-31 |
| USC |
3-0 |
1-0 |
| Idaho |
W |
38-10 |
| Nebraska |
W |
49-31 |
| Washington State |
W |
47-14 |
Overall Stats: Offense
| USC |
Washington |
|
| Passing Offense | ||
|
Yards / Game |
220.7 |
192.8 |
| Total Yards |
662 |
771 |
| Rushing Offense |
||
| Yards / Game |
241.3 |
175.3 |
| Total Yards |
724 |
701 |
| Scoring Offense |
||
| Points / Game |
44.7 |
27.8 |
| Total Points |
134 |
111 |
| Total Offense |
||
| Average / Game |
467 |
373.5 |
| Total Yards |
1401 |
1494 |
It's worth noting that USC is only 3 games into the season, to Washington's 4, and yet is not that far off the pace overall - in fact, USC is showing significantly more offensive yards over 3 games than Washington is over 4 games. Long story short, Washington has put up some numbers, but that includes playing Syracuse and a somewhat erratic UCLA side. Overall, I like SC's chances of outgaining Washington in both rushing and passing, especially in rushing.
| USC |
Washington |
|
| Total Defense |
||
| Yards / Game |
306.7 |
403.3 |
| Passing / Game |
242.3 |
228.3 |
| Rushing / Game |
64.3 |
175 |
| Total Yards |
920 |
1613 |
Washington's defensive stats certainly give USC cause for optimism - that secondary obviously isn't the greatest, and I suspect that the SC offensive line ought to be able to open up some holes to beat the average Washington performance on containing the run. SC's performance against the run should give Washington some pause for thought, although SC hasn't really faced a QB as effective at running as Locker. Also, Washington has been getting some big gains from their wide receivers (see more about this below), which is not a happy match to SC's pass defense and slightly suspect secondary.
Individual Stats on Offense
Starting QB Comparison
| CMP |
ATT |
Yards |
CMP % |
Yards / Att |
TD |
INT |
Sacks |
Rating |
|
| John David Booty |
69 |
98 |
639 |
70.4 |
6.5 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
151.4 |
| Jake Locker |
60 |
113 |
704 |
53.1 |
6.2 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
112.3 |
Considering that Booty wasn't leaned on for 2 of the 3 games thus far, that's a pretty respectable performance to date. Locker isn't too far off on yards per attempt but the 6 interceptions and 53% completion rate suggest that pressure on Locker will produce results either in 3 and outs or turnovers - providing he doesn't bolt, which leads us to...
Running Back Comparison
| Name |
Carries |
Yards |
Yards / Carry |
Long |
TD |
| Jake Locker (QB) |
55 |
361 |
6.6 |
36 |
3 |
| Louis Rankin (RB) |
62 |
276 |
4.5 |
47 |
4 |
| D'Andre Goodwin (WR) |
2 |
32 |
16 |
31 |
0 |
| Brandon Johnson (RB) |
7 |
23 |
3.3 |
10 |
1 |
| J.R. Hasty (RB) |
1 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
| Curtis Shaw (RB) |
4 |
6 |
1.5 |
2 |
0 |
| Stafon Johnson (RB) |
32 |
256 |
8 |
32 |
3 |
| C.J. Gable (RB) |
13 |
143 |
11 |
40 |
0 |
| Chauncey Washington (RB) |
23 |
127 |
5.5 |
22 |
3 |
| Joe McKnight (RB) |
14 |
79 |
5.6 |
21 |
0 |
| Stanley Havili (FB) |
4 |
63 |
15.8 |
50 |
2 |
| Desmond Reed (RB) |
5 |
36 |
7.2 |
12 |
0 |
| Allen Bradford (RB) |
14 |
19 |
1.4 |
6 |
1 |
| Hershel Dennis (RB) |
4 |
14 |
3.5 |
7 |
0 |
| Ronald Johnson (RB) |
1 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
0 |
Based on this, USC should be able to cripple Washington's running game by stopping Locker and Rankin. Stopping a featured back is bread and butter for the SC defensive line; the linebackers will have to be alert to not over-pursuing Locker and letting him pick up easy yards (REY! Are you listening?) when they are trying to force a botched pass / INT.
Receivers Comparison
| Name |
Rec | Yards |
YPR |
Long |
TD |
| Anthony Russo (WR) |
18 |
240 |
13.3 |
63 |
3 |
| Marcel Reece (WR) |
17 |
279 |
16.4 |
58 |
2 |
| Corey Williams (WR) |
9 |
107 |
11.9 |
26 |
1 |
| Quintin Daniels (WR) |
6 |
55 |
9.2 |
16 |
1 |
| Robert Lewis (TE) |
4 |
48 |
12 |
15 |
0 |
| Paul Homer (FB) |
3 |
9 |
3 |
7 |
0 |
| Louis Rankin (RB) |
3 |
9 |
3 |
6 |
0 |
| Michael Gottlieb (TE) |
2 |
19 |
9.5 |
12 |
0 |
| Fred Davis (TE) |
14 |
211 |
15.1 |
35 |
2 |
| Vidal Hazelton (WR) |
11 |
93 |
8.5 |
20 |
2 |
| Stanley Havili (FB) |
10 |
60 |
6 |
13 |
2 |
| Patrick Turner (WR) |
10 |
98 |
9.8 |
17 |
0 |
| David Ausberry (WR) |
10 |
92 |
9.2 |
21 |
0 |
| Brad Walker (WR) |
4 |
45 |
11.3 |
18 |
0 |
| Ronald Johnson (WR) |
3 |
15 |
5 |
7 |
0 |
| Joe McKnight (RB) |
2 |
8 |
4 |
8 |
0 |
| Anthony McCoy (TE) |
2 |
18 |
9 |
16 |
1 |
| Dale Thompson (TE) |
1 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
0 |
| C.J. Gable (RB) |
1 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
1 |
Locker is plainly effective when the passes connect, and the Washington WR's are picking up some big yards as a result. This is more of a threat to SC than the U-Dub running game, on paper, because our secondary is not setting the world on fire this season. In addition to the LBs pressuring Locker, the secondary has to do a good job of covering the WRs or there's a real risk of occasional big plays keeping Washington in the game. The TE / FB stats don't suggest that Washington is getting a lot of mileage from outlet receivers. That would certainly not be surprising with a young and fast QB whose probably more comfortable making a break for it than trying to find a third or fourth receiver (I'm guessing).
As for USC, I'm struck again by the production that we're not getting from our WR's, although some of that appearance is skewed from Fred Davis' game against Washington State. Whether that's because Booty was on a short leash for the first couple of games, or whether the opposition has been focusing on covering WRs to avoid giving up big plays, isn't clear from the stats. However, if USC can disrupt Russo and Reece, that's the bulk of the Washington passing game sorted out.
Overall, I think that SC should be able to win this game. At the moment, the general line on the game appears to be USC by 21, which isn't out reach. I'll take a stab at USC 42, Washington 20. What's the community prediction?