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Stanford by the numbers

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Stanford by the numbers

It feels like there's an element of futility about this preview. However, given the level of injuries that USC has been soaking up, it is theoretically possible that they could lose this game to Stanford. There's no need to tempt fate with blogging hubris, even if T.C. Ostrander is out the picture this week.

So, on to the numbers.

Team Records

Stanford
1 - 3
0-3
UCLA
L
45 - 17
San Jose State
W
37 - 0
Oregon
L
55 - 31
Arizona State
L
41 - 3

USC
4-0
2-0
Idaho
W
38-10
Nebraska
W
49-31
Washington State
W
47-14
Washington
W
27 - 24


Overall Stats: Offense


USC
Washington
Passing Offense

Yards / Game
222
268.75.
Total Yards
888
1075
Rushing Offense


Yards / Game
239.5
116.5
Total Yards
958
466
Scoring Offense


Points / Game
40.3
22
Total Points
161
88
Total Offense


Average / Game
461.5
385.25
Total Yards
1846
1541

Stanford is heavily dependent on the pass, and yet they can't score. They've outgained SC in passing to date but their rushing is woeful. That passing stat, BTW, is a portent of things to come with the Ostrander injury.


USC
Stanford
Total Defense


Yards / Game
277.5
454
Passing / Game
204.3
262.5
Rushing / Game
73.3
191.5
Total Yards
1110
1816

Stanford tends to give up as many yards per game as USC tends to gain, which is a nice piece of symmetry. I'll be curious to see if Stanford's slight edge in defending the run holds up against the SC offensive line and whichever running backs are still able to walk onto the field on Saturday.

Individual Stats on Offense

Starting QB Comparison


CMP
ATT
Yards
CMP %
Yards / Att
TD
INT
Sacks
Rating
John David Booty
88
134
865
65.7
6.5
10
4
3
138.55
T.C. Ostrander
90
166
1065
52
6.4
6
3
15
116.3
Tavita Pritchard
1
2
10
50
10
0
0
0
92

Booty is as we have seen - reliable until he isn't, the question being when / how bad when he makes a mistake. All things being equal though, he's doing not too badly. Stanford is plainly going to miss Ostrander - he's a huge part of their offense and it's unlikely that Pritchard has the game time to jump right into similar production. Given the dependence on receiving yards so far this season, this is not good news for the Cardinal.

Running Back: Leaders Comparison

Name
Carries
Yards
Yards / Carry
Long
TD
Anthony Kimble
59
288
4.9
60
3
Toby Gerhart
12
140
11.7
48
1
Jeremy Stewart
22
72
3.3
11
0
Tyrone McGraw
5
29
5.8
14
0
Jason Evans
9
27
3
6
0
Tavita Pritchard
1
18
18
18
0
T.C. Ostrander*
22
-104
-4.7
7
0






Stafon Johnson (RB)
46
378
8.2
45
4
C.J. Gable (RB)
13
143
11
40
0
Chauncey Washington (RB)
44
233
5.3
53
4
Joe McKnight (RB)
14
79
5.6
21
0
Stanley Havili (FB)
4
63
15.8
50
2
Desmond Reed (RB)
5
36
7.2
12
0
Allen Bradford (RB)
14
19
1.4
6
1
Hershel Dennis (RB)
4
14
3.5
7
0
Ronald Johnson (RB)
2
13
6.5
9
0

*Included to show his deflationary effect on team rushing stats.

It's tempting to leave out all the hobbled USC running backs, if only to save time while typing. Even allowing for Ostrander's sacking, Stanford just doesn't pick up a lot of yards on the ground. It's unlikely that this will change on Saturday.

Receivers Comparison

Name
Rec Yards
YPR
Long
TD
Richard Sherman 20
339
17
70
2
Evan Moore 14
201
14.4
42
0
Mark Bradford 16
165
10.3
29
1
Jim Dray 9
116
12.9
46
1
Ben Ladner 9
80
8.9
31
1
Austin Gunder 1
27
27
27
1






Fred Davis (TE)
18
283
15.7
35
2
Vidal Hazelton (WR) 12
99
8.3
20
2
Stanley Havili (FB)
11
60
5.5
13
2
Patrick Turner (WR) 16
185
11.6
23
1
David Ausberry (WR) 13
112
8.6
21
0
Brad Walker (WR)
4
45
11.3
18
0
Ronald Johnson (WR)
3
15
5
7
0
Joe McKnight (RB)
2
8
4
8
0
Anthony McCoy (TE)
2
18
9
16
1
Dale Thompson (TE)
1
9
9
9
0
C.J. Gable (RB)
1
8
8
8
1

Just as Ostrander's stats would suggest, Stanford gets a lot more of their offensive game from passing than rushing, which leaves them a bit vulnerable with Ostrander being out. However, don't rule out the possibility of Pritchard trying to build some confidence against the SC secondary, because who wouldn't try to pass at SC on the corner. Last week wasn't a stand-out performance for USC receivers, although in fairness they got some help in the missed catch department from Booty. They really need to work on finding a good way for Turner especially to start contributing - eventually teams are going to start covering Fred Davis a little better, and then what?

Still, while Stanford aren't quite as bad as the stats suggest, they are not at a peak of competitiveness... especially with a pass first offense and a QB who is out commission.

I'm guessing 42 - 7, all other projections welcome in the comments section below.