Stanford by the numbers
It feels like there's an element of futility about this preview. However, given the level of injuries that USC has been soaking up, it is theoretically possible that they could lose this game to Stanford. There's no need to tempt fate with blogging hubris, even if T.C. Ostrander is out the picture this week.
So, on to the numbers.
Team Records
|
Stanford |
1 - 3 |
0-3 |
| UCLA |
L |
45 - 17 |
| San Jose State |
W |
37 - 0 |
| Oregon |
L |
55 - 31 |
| Arizona State |
L |
41 - 3 |
| USC |
4-0 |
2-0 |
| Idaho |
W |
38-10 |
| Nebraska |
W |
49-31 |
| Washington State |
W |
47-14 |
| Washington |
W |
27 - 24 |
Overall Stats: Offense
| USC |
Washington |
|
| Passing Offense | ||
|
Yards / Game |
222 |
268.75. |
| Total Yards |
888 |
1075 |
| Rushing Offense |
||
| Yards / Game |
239.5 |
116.5 |
| Total Yards |
958 |
466 |
| Scoring Offense |
||
| Points / Game |
40.3 |
22 |
| Total Points |
161 |
88 |
| Total Offense |
||
| Average / Game |
461.5 |
385.25 |
| Total Yards |
1846 |
1541 |
Stanford is heavily dependent on the pass, and yet they can't score. They've outgained SC in passing to date but their rushing is woeful. That passing stat, BTW, is a portent of things to come with the Ostrander injury.
| USC |
Stanford |
|
| Total Defense |
||
| Yards / Game |
277.5 |
454 |
| Passing / Game |
204.3 |
262.5 |
| Rushing / Game |
73.3 |
191.5 |
| Total Yards |
1110 |
1816 |
Stanford tends to give up as many yards per game as USC tends to gain, which is a nice piece of symmetry. I'll be curious to see if Stanford's slight edge in defending the run holds up against the SC offensive line and whichever running backs are still able to walk onto the field on Saturday.
Individual Stats on Offense
Starting QB Comparison
| CMP |
ATT |
Yards |
CMP % |
Yards / Att |
TD |
INT |
Sacks |
Rating |
|
| John David Booty |
88 |
134 |
865 |
65.7 |
6.5 |
10 |
4 |
3 |
138.55 |
| T.C. Ostrander |
90 |
166 |
1065 |
52 |
6.4 |
6 |
3 |
15 |
116.3 |
| Tavita Pritchard |
1 |
2 |
10 |
50 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
92 |
Booty is as we have seen - reliable until he isn't, the question being when / how bad when he makes a mistake. All things being equal though, he's doing not too badly. Stanford is plainly going to miss Ostrander - he's a huge part of their offense and it's unlikely that Pritchard has the game time to jump right into similar production. Given the dependence on receiving yards so far this season, this is not good news for the Cardinal.
Running Back: Leaders Comparison
| Name |
Carries |
Yards |
Yards / Carry |
Long |
TD |
| Anthony Kimble |
59 |
288 |
4.9 |
60 |
3 |
| Toby Gerhart |
12 |
140 |
11.7 |
48 |
1 |
| Jeremy Stewart |
22 |
72 |
3.3 |
11 |
0 |
| Tyrone McGraw |
5 |
29 |
5.8 |
14 |
0 |
| Jason Evans |
9 |
27 |
3 |
6 |
0 |
| Tavita Pritchard |
1 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
0 |
| T.C. Ostrander* |
22 |
-104 |
-4.7 |
7 |
0 |
| Stafon Johnson (RB) |
46 |
378 |
8.2 |
45 |
4 |
| C.J. Gable (RB) |
13 |
143 |
11 |
40 |
0 |
| Chauncey Washington (RB) |
44 |
233 |
5.3 |
53 |
4 |
| Joe McKnight (RB) |
14 |
79 |
5.6 |
21 |
0 |
| Stanley Havili (FB) |
4 |
63 |
15.8 |
50 |
2 |
| Desmond Reed (RB) |
5 |
36 |
7.2 |
12 |
0 |
| Allen Bradford (RB) |
14 |
19 |
1.4 |
6 |
1 |
| Hershel Dennis (RB) |
4 |
14 |
3.5 |
7 |
0 |
| Ronald Johnson (RB) |
2 |
13 |
6.5 |
9 |
0 |
*Included to show his deflationary effect on team rushing stats.
It's tempting to leave out all the hobbled USC running backs, if only to save time while typing. Even allowing for Ostrander's sacking, Stanford just doesn't pick up a lot of yards on the ground. It's unlikely that this will change on Saturday.
Receivers Comparison
| Name |
Rec | Yards |
YPR |
Long |
TD |
| Richard Sherman | 20 |
339 |
17 |
70 |
2 |
| Evan Moore | 14 |
201 |
14.4 |
42 |
0 |
| Mark Bradford | 16 |
165 |
10.3 |
29 |
1 |
| Jim Dray | 9 |
116 |
12.9 |
46 |
1 |
| Ben Ladner | 9 |
80 |
8.9 |
31 |
1 |
| Austin Gunder | 1 |
27 |
27 |
27 |
1 |
| Fred Davis (TE) |
18 |
283 |
15.7 |
35 |
2 |
| Vidal Hazelton (WR) | 12 |
99 |
8.3 |
20 |
2 |
| Stanley Havili (FB) |
11 |
60 |
5.5 |
13 |
2 |
| Patrick Turner (WR) | 16 |
185 |
11.6 |
23 |
1 |
| David Ausberry (WR) | 13 |
112 |
8.6 |
21 |
0 |
| Brad Walker (WR) |
4 |
45 |
11.3 |
18 |
0 |
| Ronald Johnson (WR) |
3 |
15 |
5 |
7 |
0 |
| Joe McKnight (RB) |
2 |
8 |
4 |
8 |
0 |
| Anthony McCoy (TE) |
2 |
18 |
9 |
16 |
1 |
| Dale Thompson (TE) |
1 |
9 |
9 |
9 |
0 |
| C.J. Gable (RB) |
1 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
1 |
Just as Ostrander's stats would suggest, Stanford gets a lot more of their offensive game from passing than rushing, which leaves them a bit vulnerable with Ostrander being out. However, don't rule out the possibility of Pritchard trying to build some confidence against the SC secondary, because who wouldn't try to pass at SC on the corner. Last week wasn't a stand-out performance for USC receivers, although in fairness they got some help in the missed catch department from Booty. They really need to work on finding a good way for Turner especially to start contributing - eventually teams are going to start covering Fred Davis a little better, and then what?
Still, while Stanford aren't quite as bad as the stats suggest, they are not at a peak of competitiveness... especially with a pass first offense and a QB who is out commission.
I'm guessing 42 - 7, all other projections welcome in the comments section below.