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An Abbreviated BlogPoll Roundtable

So Brian has put together a mini BlogPoll Roundtable in conjunction with the pre-season BlogPoll that was just released. His questions are simple:

  1. Who is overrated
  2. Who is underrated
I have gotten a kick out reading my fellow bloggers polls and the explanations that go with them. Everyone has their own style steeped in the individual personalities of those who vote. Even when I may disagree with something that is written I respect the voters opinions and file it away as there will be many ballots to fill out. But more often than not they are pretty dead on and seldom miss their mark.

Who is Underrated:

Nebraska: - I went back and looked at this team and while it is easy to shots at Bill Callahan I think he slowly but surely bringing the Huskers back. He has some issues on defense but the offense looks improved and they have pretty solid line. Maurice Purify is going through some times with the recent death of his older brother and some other off the field issues but he is still a pretty potent weapon.

I think Sam Keller may have a new spring in his step after going through all that crap at AZ St. Keller has some new life and while he had some great numbers at ASU he did it without the talent he has now. I think Nebraska has a chance to not only go to the Big XII Title game but they have a good chance to win it. The defense will be the question here but I can see no reason why they won't put up some big numbers this season. The game to watch, outside of their game against us, will be the one against Texas, in Austin. I sense a real barnburner coming on, as they almost had the `horns last year except for that fumble late. I think they will be fun to watch!

Who is Overrated:

UCLA: - I could go in two directions here and both are easy. My initial thought was LSU for all of the obvious reasons, most important is that I think Les Miles has put his team under a tremendous amount of pressure with his comments about the Pac 10, then only to see him back track and then appear to start setting up excuses if they don't perform. I also think that while VA Tech will have a tough time going into Baton Rouge the Hokies are on a mission as they carry the memories of 31 fellow Hokies to honor, so to me anything is possible with them. LSU needs to be careful with this team and not get caught looking ahead.

Now, I had to put ucla somewhere in my poll and I thought #17 was about right, but then I started thinking about it. They may have 20 returning starters, they may have beaten SC 13-9 but as I have said before their season defined by that win, it was all they could hang their hat on. They couldn't say we won the Pac 10, they couldn't say we won the Rose Bowl all they could say was that we beat SC.  But to me this one is easy; the most vocal part of their fan base is on a mission to get rid of their coach. That's fine, as he has obviously shown that he is incapable of running their program. But there is bit more to it than that. There are pages and pages of reasons as to why there is no faith in their coach and there are way too many to list but one comment stands out to me:

As was the case with the major upsets...

during lavin's tenure, I think last year's sc game was won by the players DESPITE the coaching. Dorrell didn't win that game, the players did. You could see how badly they wanted.

This year, as always, I remain optimistic. However, that doesn't mean I have to leave my common sense at the door and unfortunately, I expect a lot more ND type losses this season.

by UCngLA on Fri Aug 17, 2007 at 08:45:40 PM EDT
[ Parent ]

So the question begs what about those six losses? Is that a shot across the bow at their own players? Is the commenter saying that they couldn't get up for those 6 games? You mean the only game they could get fired up for was the SC game because it was a rivalry game? That only reinforces my point about that win defining their whole season. They have 20 returning starters coming back, we know Dorrell is crummy coach and we know they can win when they put their mind to it so which is it?

Until that question is answered I don't think we'll know just what this team can do based on one fluke win and one fluke 10-2 season. They may think they own L.A. but to most of us that is an aberration. It's make or break time in Westwood and I know they agree because they say it every second of every day, the question is which way is it going to go? I don't expect them to buy in to the SC Hype, heck I don't buy into a lot of it but come on how can you justify saying that USC is NOT the consensus #1 ranked team in the country! Take a good long look around everyone else does, we're just not the unanimous #1. All this talk of SPJ, Safety U and such is all blather, as long as there is a disconnect between the team and the coach it won't get done. There is a LOT of talent there but I just don't see it coming together consistently for a whole season when the coach can't even figure out what his new back-up QB is capable of and the players can seemingly get up for one game here but not for the others there.

Mind boggling.

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A Good Tool To Measure!
In my previous article today I introduced a new concept called the Quality Opponent Factor (QOF) Rating which focuses on how teams have performed against other elite teams. I set the bar at a nine win minimum. The purpose of this was to come up with a rating variable to rank the top teams in the country as it becomes very difficult to effectively rate the difference between Penn State, Georgia, UCLA, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech and Rutgers.

Since I utilized this rating scale to evaluate the SEC Conference in my previous article, I wanted to run this same criteria against the BCSBuster Pre-Season Top-25 to see if I ranked each team correctly. I chose the last three seasons as a common parameter and ran the results. It was a pretty shocking discovery!

BCSBusters QOF-Ratings Top-25

  1. USC (12-2) - .857
  2. Boston College (6-2) - .750
  3. Auburn (10-4) - .714
  4. Texas (6-3) - .666
  5. Boise State (6-3) - .666
  6. LSU (7-6) - .538
  7. Florida (8-7) - .533
8T. Georgia (7-7) - .500

8T. Virginia Tech (6-6) - .500

8T. Louisville (4-4) - .500

8T. Ohio State (5-5) - .500

8T. Michigan (6-6) - .500

  1. Notre Dame (6-7) - .461
  2. West Virginia (5-6) - .454
  3. Rutgers (4-5) - .444
  4. Wisconsin (3-4) - .428
  5. Oklahoma (5-7) - .416
  6. Miami (4-6) - .400
  7. Wake Forest (4-7) - .363
16T. Clemson (3-6) - .333

16T. California (3-6) - .333

  1. Georgia Tech (4-9) - .307
  2. Arizona (4-9) - .307
  3. Florida State (3-7) - .300
20T. Tennessee (4-10) - .285

20T. Houston (2-5) - .285

  1. Iowa (3-8) - .272
  2. UCLA (2-6) - .250
  3. So. Florida (2-6) - .250
  4. Oregon State (3-10) - .230
25T. Texas Tech (2-7) - .222

25T. Oklahoma State (2-7) - .222

26T. Maryland (2-8) - .200

26T. Washington State (2-8) - .200

  1. South Carolina (2-10) - .166
  2. Kentucky (2-12) - .142
  3. Arkansas (2-13) - .133
The three teams that look out of place are Boston College, Arizona and (gulp - gasp) Notre Dame. Other than that, this has become a pretty good tool for me because all the teams in the various rankings that are close together in terms of their Quality Opponent Factor are pretty darn close in terms of overall projection. I know it isn't proper to rank a team before a game is played based on previous seasons successes, but isn't this how we actually base our rankings? And shouldn't we be basing our rankings, especially a pre-season poll, on recent success, and not the typical 30-50 year traditional status in the game? Let me know what you think of this ranking tool and I will break down all of the BCS Conferences over the next couple of days.

This is a good barometer to use in measuring a teams strength and although this graded well for the SEC, it doesn't look good for the overall strength of the PAC-10.  

Oregon (1-8)
Washington (1-11)
Arizona State (1-10)
Washington State (2-8)
UCLA (2-6)
Oregon State (3-10)
California (3-6)
Arizona (4-9)

USC's was the best in country at (12-2), so the next time someone says USC is over-rated - throw this back at them.  It was the best in the country by far!  Next best was Auburn (10-4)!

I didn't run Stanford - I know its bad if all the other comparable teams were 4-29 combined!  YIKES!!

BCSBusters - A Regular Season Bracketed Playoff Truly Making Everygame a Playoff In College Football.

by bcsbusters on Aug 27, 2007 4:36 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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