Numbers courtesy of Bill Connelly and make sure you keep the glossary open.
USC Offense vs Arizona Defense
USC Offense | Arizona Defense | |||||
Category | Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | ||
Overall | Explosiveness | IsoPPP | 1.37 | 21 | 1.29 | 79 |
Efficiency | Success Rate | 46.4% | 25 | 44.8% | 94 | |
Field Position | Avg. FP | 28.4 | 100 | 28.8 | 51 | |
Finishing Drives | Pts per trip in 40 | 5.44 | 18 | 5.31 | 112 | |
Rushing | Rushing S&P+ | 121 | 20 | 105.3 | 56 | |
Rushing Success Rate | 46.1% | 35 | 43.2% | 72 | ||
Rushing IsoPPP | 1.11 | 47 | 0.92 | 14 | ||
Passing | Passing S&P+ | 131.8 | 6 | 73.1 | 128 | |
Passing Success Rate | 46.7% | 19 | 46.4% | 110 | ||
Passing IsoPPP | 1.6 | 37 | 1.62 | 108 | ||
Standard Downs | Standard Downs S&P+ | 117.7 | 21 | 93.6 | 92 | |
Standard Downs Success Rate | 51.0% | 31 | 50.0% | 93 | ||
Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.14 | 48 | 1.02 | 38 | ||
Passing Downs | Passing Downs S&P+ | 139.7 | 9 | 74.7 | 125 | |
Passing Downs Success Rate | 33.3% | 41 | 33.5% | 95 | ||
Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.31 | 3 | 2.17 | 125 | ||
Havoc Rate | 12.6% | 115 |
Arizona Offense vs USC Defense
Arizona Offense | USC Defense | |||||
Category | Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | ||
Overall | Explosiveness | IsoPPP | 1.29 | 51 | 1.21 | 53 |
Efficiency | Success Rate | 46.0% | 30 | 41.9% | 70 | |
Field Position | Avg. FP | 28.6 | 97 | 27 | 21 | |
Finishing Drives | Pts per trip in 40 | 5.35 | 24 | 3.84 | 17 | |
Rushing | Rushing S&P+ | 114.3 | 33 | 111.4 | 38 | |
Rushing Success Rate | 48.6% | 16 | 43.1% | 71 | ||
Rushing IsoPPP | 1.15 | 37 | 1.02 | 52 | ||
Passing | Passing S&P+ | 104.6 | 62 | 110.7 | 40 | |
Passing Success Rate | 43.6% | 42 | 41% | 70 | ||
Passing IsoPPP | 1.43 | 77 | 1.43 | 58 | ||
Standard Downs | Standard Downs S&P+ | 102 | 68 | 112.6 | 35 | |
Stadard Downs Success Rate | 49.2% | 43 | 46.4% | 65 | ||
Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.07 | 77 | 1.1 | 72 | ||
Passing Downs | Passing Downs S&P+ | 131.7 | 14 | 108.7 | 49 | |
Passing Downs Success Rate | 37.0% | 15 | 31.7% | 84 | ||
Passing Downs IsoPPP | 2.09 | 14 | 1.59 | 31 | ||
Havoc Rate | 14.0% | 99 |
Arizona is still doing its typical things well like running the ball ball efficiently however it's defense is a complete mess. USC should have no problem offensively tonight. The question is whether or not Juju Smith-Schuster starts or even plays tonight and if he doesn't which wideout will step up to be Cody Kessler's main target.
It's pretty difficult to tie individual players and subsequent injuries to stats like this however I think it's fair to say the loss of Scooby Wright for most of the season has had a significant effect on Arizona's havoc rate. The USC defense has been successful in forcing turnovers the last couple games and it might be a philosophical change with Clay Helton at the helm. I think USC wins this game pretty easily given all the injuries for Arizona listed below. My score prediction is 34-13 USC which is right in between S&P+ and Vegas at -19.
So, Arizona is down its two best linebackers, starting running back, and both guards. Against USC. Super ideal.
— Zack Rosenblatt (@ZackBlatt) November 5, 2015