Advanced Boxscore: USC 62, Cal 28

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

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USC 62, California 28

California USC California USC
Close % 43.2% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 44.8% 36.0% Success Rate 44.0% 58.8%
Leverage % 67.6% 65.4% PPP 0.39 0.65
S&P 0.833 1.240
TOTAL
EqPts 44.7 47.7 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 37.8% 53.9% Success Rate 25.0% 44.4%
Close PPP 0.40 0.80 PPP 0.43 1.07
Close S&P 0.782 1.336 S&P 0.676 1.516
RUSHING TURNOVERS
EqPts 19.6 26.3 Number 0 0
Close Success Rate 30.8% 50.0% Turnover Pts 0.0 0.0
Close PPP 0.35 0.69 Turnover Pts Margin 0.0 0.0
Close S&P 0.661 1.185
Line Yards/carry 3.23 3.17 Q1 S&P 0.620 1.290
Q2 S&P 0.865 1.582
PASSING Q3 S&P 1.140 1.977
EqPts 25.1 21.5 Q4 S&P 1.010 1.336
Close Success Rate 41.7% 57.1%
Close PPP 0.43 0.89 1st Down S&P 0.955 1.697
Close S&P 0.847 1.465 2nd Down S&P 1.064 1.290
SD/PD Sack Rate 0.0% / 10.0% 16.7% / 0.0% 3rd Down S&P 0.685 1.363
Projected Pt. Margin: USC +3.1 | Actual Pt. Margin: USC +34


3 thoughts...

1.  One thing that the advanced box score does not take into account is special teams.  When your punt returner goes HAM, it's going to skew the actual point margin when compared to the projected point margin.  The EqPts say that this game was almost even.  That's because they're based on the whole game.  The close game stats tell the real story of how SC put this game to bed real quick.

2.  In the preview Thursday, I said that getting into 2nd and 3rd and longs would not be a problem for the SC offense against the Bear defense and it wasn't.  The Trojans converted on a 3rd & 9, 3rd & 8, and a 2nd & 18 on their 3 non-special team scoring drives in the 1st half.

3.  I thought Cal's offense would struggle this game but they were actually okay.  The inability to dial up a big play in the passing game doomed any hope of a comeback.  Averaging 5.5 yards a pass will not get you back in a game in which you're down by 27 at the half.  Especially when the other team is averaging almost 9 yards a carry.

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