Scholarship Math

by Paragon SC on Jul 6, 2010 3:15 PM PDT

I did not do the research on this and I really haven't had the time today to back check it but it looks pretty dead on.

This is what the recruiting classes should look like in the nest few years.

We currently have 74 scholarship players on the roster (including Soma + Henderson). We have 16 seniors on track to graduate after 2010. That means we will have 58 returning scholarship players for 2011 (74-16).

2011
So for 2011 we have 58 returnees +15 member recruiting class + 2 early entry enrollees (that count toward 2010 class) = 75 total scholarship players.

Of course if Soma + Henderson do not come then we can have 4 early entrants. Either way I expect us to have 75 total scholarship players for 2011.

2012

This is the year where we run into trouble because we currently have 19 juniors on track to graduate after the 2011 season. If that occurs the following is the math: 75-19 = 56 returning scholarship players. 56 + 15 (max # of recruits we can bring in) = 71 total players that we can have for the 2012 season on scholarship.

Things would have been even worse if Campbell, Jackson and Stanley stayed. We then would have had 22 players graduating after the 2011 season meaning for the 2012 class we would have had 53 returnees (75-22) +15 new recruits = 68 total players on scholarship for the 2012 season.

Since they left, we can now bring in a couple of EE's for the 2010 class that will allow us to get around this problem.

2013

We only have 12 scholarship players on track to graduate after the 2012 season, so we'd have no problem filling those scholarships in the 2013 class.

Pretty solid take. It looks like this guys has nailed dawn pretty good. He could end up being off one or two here or there depending on unknown factors but if nothing changes in his formula this is where we will see ourselves.

Great Stuff!!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Conquest Chronicles' writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Conquest Chronicles' writers or editors.

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Doesn't the appeal effect these numbers?

I heard the appeal places a hold on the scholarship reduction, at least until it’s ruled on. That the reduction by 10 might not effect the 2011 class. However I also heard that USC has self reduced the number by 5 in the mean time. If so, it does make a difference.???

by ev on Jul 6, 2010 4:31 PM PDT reply actions

Consider a few material revisions?

Ev is right, this does not reflect the appeal. And, the EE count is way off, I think. It can be tricky deciphering the scholie situation on the roster, but I count 78 scholie players heading into this summer. So, with that in mind, here’s my math:

+ 2009/10 recruiting class, max allowed 25, signed 19, 2 were EEs for 2009 season (DBax & Prater, Pat Hall also counted as a 2009 EE), 2 are not likely to enroll (Henderson & Stanley), so we only counted 15 scholies toward 2010’s class. That is huge. USC can enroll up to 10 EEs in spring ’11 to get to the 25 annual limit.

- 2010 season, 78 scholie players entering this summer, minus Henderson, Jackson, Campbell & Stanley. That takes us to 74 players for 2010 assuming the rest of the class enrolls – e.g.,Soma

- 2011 season, USC has appealed and accepted a 5 scholie ban, so USC may take a class of 20 with a max roster of 80. 16 players graduate, taking our roster down to 58. USC can take up to 10 EEs in spring 2011 and sign up to 20 scholie players for summer enrollment for 2011, as long as the total roster doesn’t go over 80. We have 30 scholies to offer and only 22 spots to fill, so if we lose a few more players to injury, grades, transfer, we still have scholies to replace them. I expect USC to front-end load as many EEs as possible, which could keep us under the 20 scholie cap, giving us dry powder to use for 2012 EEs. USC plays 2011 with a roster of 80, including some good grayshirts and walk-ons waiting for scholies.

- 2012 season, assume USC loses the appeal, and is limited to a class of 15 with a roster max of 75. USC graduates 19 seniors, taking the roster from 80 to 61. USC will use 14 scholarships to get us back up to 75 scholie players for 2012.

- 2013 season, USC graduates 12 seniors, taking the roster from 75 to 63. USC will use 12 scholarships to get us back up to 75 scholie players for 2013.

Of course, there will be some player turnover throughout the years, but with plenty of room for 2010 EEs and the appeal likely delaying the 15/75 limit until 2012 class, USC has a golden opportunity to stockpile inventory with which to weather this minor storm. I do not see USC’s roster dipping any lower than it will be this fall at 74 or so. Let me know where you guys see errors or discrepancies.

by DFWTrojan on Jul 6, 2010 10:02 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs

Great work Tex!

It’s all going to hinge on our crack team of talent evaluators not making any crucial mistakes. I trust these guys more than I did PC, who seemed to put too much stock in marquee players. Recruit those “big uglies” like crazy and tone down the collisions in practice to reduce injuries. We’ll still beat fUcla and split with ND and win 8-10 games in 2011 and 2012. Coach Kiff will be hailed as a wunderkind.

Still LOCO after all these years

All hail Augustus Kiffin!
M·AGRIPPA·L·F·COS·TERTIVM·FECIT

by M. AGRIPPA on Jul 6, 2010 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks DFW

That was what I was thinking but clearly wasn’t sure about. Doesn’t that also mean even if USC loses the appeal the 2014 class would be at 80, since we took a partial against it in 2012?

by ev on Jul 7, 2010 7:39 AM PDT up reply actions

+1, yeah, that's what I am thinking too. we'll be rolling again in 2014.

by DFWTrojan on Jul 7, 2010 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Excellent work DFW

These numbers look good to me.

Now for each class of 2011, ‘12, & ’13- obviously linebackers are in the mix to try to add depth to- where else, (and for Julio- who’s out there for us) who else, and what their individual numbers should look like?

At this point, I’m still seeing RED! It’s not getting any better for me. Each day that goes by, I should be feeling a little bit better about these sanctions.

I’m not. I’m getting more and more pissed off!

"As for being a Raiders fan, I wouldn't wish that fucking shit on anybody." [the venerable OTS at Roll Bama Roll}

by BixBeiderbecke on Jul 7, 2010 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions