Will the USC defense regress?
I guess you never really look at it that way when you are used to seeing the defense just keep plugging along no matter who leaves for the NFL. We have been blessed (spoiled?) with the amount of talent that Pete Carroll and his staff have brought in. There is no other program that has consistently upgraded its talent year in and year out like USC.
But that is exactly the question asked by Doc Saturday...
The mind, it boggles at the talent on those two units, which produced 11 All-Pac-10 picks (not including back-to-back appearances on the first team by Taylor Mays and Rey Maualuga) and sent 13 players to the draft, nine in the first two rounds -- in two years. If safeties Mays and Josh Pinkard follow the same route next spring, every single regular starter from the 2007-08 Trojan defenses will be on the next level, an absurd ratio even for USC.
So as used as we are to writing off attrition here with the "USC doesn't rebuild, it reloads" cliché, it's worth considering that the core of those awesome defenses -- namely last year's seniors: Maualuga, Brian Cushing, Fili Moala, Kyle Moore, Kevin Ellison and Cary Harris -- was really a special group that won't be easily, or at least not immediately, replaced. This is an obvious concern when you put into perspective just how inexperienced this fall's defense is going to be by comparison:
OK, I can have some fun with this...
You gotta start somewhere, right?
With the high level at which this defense has operated the past few years it is easy to see where some would think that sooner or later the defense won't be as special as we have seen in the past. Doc points that out in looking at the defense in 2006. USC's heart breaking loss to Texas obviously came at the hands of a very special player in Vince Young but that is only half of the story...the USC defense that year was decimated by injury and a number of players on the field were freshmen in that game. That group of freshmen constituted what became the great defenses of 2007 & 2008.
But even with all of those losses a lot of people think that the defense will continue to function at a very high level. Maybe not at what we saw last year when the defense gave up an average of nine points per game but would anyone be disappointed if the defense kept it under seventeen points in 2009?
There were a number of players who have made their presence known on the field who are returning like Everson Griffen who has seemed to make the turn on his approach to the game. Then there is Armond Armstead who I can guarantee will be one of the best Defensive Linemen to come out of the Pete Carroll era...and he is only a sophomore. Junior Christian Tupou is another. The point is SC has all of these guys making contributions on the field even when they are not starting. That on only increases their experience and exposure so when the time does come for them to step into the starting role there is a seem less transition.
Doc makes this final observation...
It's almost a mathematical certainty that this defense must regress. Even if that only means two letdowns instead of one, that could be the difference between their eighth consecutive Pac-10 triumph and the long-awaited eulogies for the conference dynasty of the decade.
I would agree with this, sooner or later it will happen. The Pac-10 is getting better and no team can keep this up this type of production forever and it will be a big let down to masses.
Then again Doc asked us in the past...if not now, when?
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2006 - The Tings
Need we say more?
Ok, maybe just a little more. Like plane crashes, the loss to Texas had a multitude of causes; Reggie’s lateral, the Tings, Frostee Rucker, Sark/Kiff/Pete leaving Reggie on the sideline while sending LenDale up the middle, and even Vince Young; add some atrocious officiating and all of a sudden you need the NTSB to sort it all out.
I’m not worried about this years defense.
by Locoweed 1.1 on Aug 19, 2009 9:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The NTSB ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????
That’s just a freakin’ BEAUTY, mank!
(the way my mind blew to . . . . . . hot chick doing the spokesperson thing for the NTSB. . . . to . . hold on a second, could it be that it’s true? . . . . .are the Trojans so peerless, as to almost appear- otherworldly? . . . badasses from outter space? . . . no, wait! na-uhh? that’s not it! . . . .is it?. . . . and then I figured out- ah-hahhhh! Loco just took me for a . . . ride. . . .! Totally. Killed. It!)
"As for being a Raiders fan, I wouldn't wish that fucking shit on anybody." [the venerable OTS at Roll Bama Roll}
by BixBeiderbecke on Aug 19, 2009 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like this defense better than all the others, so I am not worried.
As to what Doc is saying I understand ups and downs but until PC leaves I don’t see a drop off. Pete is so different from other coaches in his age group, he really understands the young athlete and people in general. I wish this guy was running our country and I truly hate politicians so he has really made me a believer.
Things that other coaches do that is not PC:
1) like chastise his players on National TV—-always treat people like you want to be treat (IE. ask Kevin Craft what he really feels about SLICK). PC would wait to talk to player at half and after game, and would be positive about it.
2) Developing players to the next level: People really think that Chow actually made Palmer & Lienart Heisman Trophey winners, PC had more to do with it than people see especially columists.
3) Like analyzing recruits he doesn’t look at stars just how the player fits his system and sometimes he makes mistakes but at 3-5% that is nothing, How many coaches will tell a prospect that he will not play his position on and we are going to make you an NFL player on defense (Randle Carroll) most will over recruit and push old players out.
4) He cares about all people in general is truly a nice person.
Oh and I forgot he pays all players btw 40 & 200,000 (usc tuition) with a chance to make millions.
Just like the other day when I talked to a couple of grad students while we were watching practice from track stadium. One kid who played football at sbjc and transfered to BYU and made squad but mainly practice player. This guy said HS players who say I will not play at USC and go elsewhere don’t see it (PC & USC it doesn’t get any better than that) that it is the top of the mountain at SC.
Paul D. Kelley
BN is a myopic site
by so.cal.native1952 on Aug 19, 2009 10:14 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think a better question is
regress to what? Drop off seems fairly inevitable but the question is how much it is.
[DELETED ZOMG NO POLITICS]
by bluemax on Aug 19, 2009 11:15 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
That 2007/08 Defense
Lost to Oregon, Oregon State and freakin Stanford, and trailed the Furd at the half last year, despite every starter on that defense being (or will be) drafted.
And since just about everyone drafted in the 07 or 08 classes played starting or significant minutes in 06, add the OSU and UCLA to that list.
Whereas that 2003/04 defense that really only produced one player of NFL impact (Lofa), they lost one freakin’ game, that that was in triple overtime to Cal, and was due more to Leinart three picks.
The point is that as big and mean and pro-specimen infused as the 07-08 defenses were, they were horrible at creating turnovers, which made them vulnerable in close games. This looks to more of a speed turnover, ballhawking defense in the 03-04 modes. Sure, the defense will give up more points, but the most important stat for a Pete Carroll defense is turnover ratio, and that , hopefully, will be vastly improved.
The only concern I have is if the front seven can consistently stop the run. If so, then no worries.
by Zoulou on Aug 19, 2009 11:55 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Zou have you seen The Curtis Washington video at USC hoops
This kid is going to be the best center ever at USC
Paul D. Kelley
BN is a myopic site
by so.cal.native1952 on Aug 19, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That Doc, he IS crazy, like that!
He’s cobbled together the obvious variables that exist in which any top contender in the Pac 10 can wrestle the the conference title away from the mighty USC Trojans football team. His given isn’t exactly a knock on the Trojans themselves, it’s a scenario that finds (above all other previous seasons) the Trojans a bit vulnerable to be attacked offensively- in hopes of keeping a replaced and re-loeaded inexperienced (to some extent) front line and LB corps, and pressured defensively- in hopes of rattling our green QB’s and platooning rotation of RB’s.
It must be stated: Much has been made of the fact that USC has just three starters returning from last year’s record-setting defense. But that stat is highly deceptive. Five key players in various position battles have at least three starts each, making the defense surprisingly experienced considering the oft-used and misleading — though technically correct — “three returning starters” stat that’s repeated in newspaper articles and on TV. The three official returning starters on defense are safeties Taylor Mays and Josh Pinkard and defensive lineman Christian Tupou, but five more players add some lesser-known experience to the defense. Safety Will Harris and defensive end Everson Griffen have five previous starts each, cornerback Kevin Thomas has four, cornerback Shareece Wright has three and defensive tackle Averell Spicer has three previous starts. So, along with Mays and Pinkard, Harris, Thomas and Wright make a fully experienced defensive backfield, and Griffen and Spicer join Tupou to form a veteran frontline. Even linebacker Michael Morgan has one previous start, meaning the defense is definitely not as depleted as the media is making it seem.
I think we’re alright on defense, or more accurately- I think our replaced and re-loaded defense will be better than good, and I have a sense that the make-up of this new season’s defense will be up to the task of shutting each and everyone of our Pac 10 rivals down without any let-up on the conferences very best, but more importantly- they won’t let the conferences doormats upset them on any given Saturday (or Thursday, whatever the case might be).
However, on offense? Depending on how Coach Bates schemes for us (he is the new kid on the block. will he become a new nihja from the school that produces them?), and who’s behind center- I think we have the capacity and firepower to out-score our conference opponents, maybe not at will like our ’05 team did- but in bunches and with certain consistency.
So, this out to Cal, and Duckville, and Beaver-country: put up and close the deal this year will ya? Trust me fellas, this will be about the only time in the near future where the stars aren’t aligned quite right for we Trojans to re-re-re-re-re-re-re-repeat. It’s there for the taking, so (in the words of ParagonSC), “Shut up, and play!”
"As for being a Raiders fan, I wouldn't wish that fucking shit on anybody." [the venerable OTS at Roll Bama Roll}
by BixBeiderbecke on Aug 20, 2009 12:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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