Pac 10 Roundtable: Now Actually a Roundtable!

by Laughing Stock on Mar 1, 2009 2:02 PM PST in USC Basketball

So shortly after I wrote that I would answer the Pac 10 roundtable questions on Sundays they went and flipped the format on me. Now it will actually be a roundtable format, and all I have to do now is post the email logs. This weeks discussion is very ucla-centric:

California Golden Blogs (CGB): Hypothesis: UCLA will not make the Final Four again this year. They won't even make the Elite 8. Discuss.

JKarp (not sure which site): It's been such a topsy turvy season of college hoops so fat that I'm not comfortable counting ANY of the nation's top teams out of making a deep tourney run. However, I am having serious doubts about the Bruins chances of making it through the 2nd weekend because of their streaky nature. While UCLA is certainly intimidating in their own way, I don't think they belong in the same breath with UNC, Duke, UConn, Pitt or Oklahoma. Despite that, if their shooters get hot come late March, they could become an intimidating factor.

Addicted to Quack (ATQ): I'm in the same camp as Jkarp. UCLA hasn't had that "killer instinct" this year as they have had in years past. They've lost 3 out of their last 4 games and seem to be taking it easy as they ride into the Oregon schools to finish out the season. Will they step it up again once we hit the Pac-10 tournament? I'm not sure they will. The team feels different then the other top teams in the nation. I would be surprised to see UCLA in a deep tournament run.

Conquest Chronicles - Laughing Stock (CC-LS): Just like most thought in the preseason, I really think UCLA's front court will ultimately decide their fate. The only way they get to the final four is if Alfred Aboya plays at the level he played against Notre Dame and manages to stay out of foul trouble for 4 games in a row. Not impossible, just incredibly unlikely. You also have to wonder a bit about the Bruins next season. They once again lose three starters (and apparently there are also rumblings of Dragovic headed to play in Europe), and although they will have a lot of talent they will be very young. WIth UW currently in first after beating the universally beloved Trojans and ASU holding the tie breaker it seems very likely that someone other than UCLA will win the Pac 10 this year and next year. Strange to think about huh?

CGB: UCLA has been a defense first team under Ben Howland. Not that their offense was bad or anything, far from it. But even if their offense was struggling, they always had a staunch defense to fall back on.

But this year, I don't know. They did just give up 82 points to Washington State. In Pauley. 82 points! WSU scored 51, 52, 67, 63, 54, 56, 65, and 44 in the games preceeding it. WSU's previous high was 76 in the first game of the year to Jerry Rice's alma mater Mississippi Valley State.

The game before, UCLA gave up 76 to UW. Then 84 and 74 to ASU and UA respectively. Over these past few games, UCLA's defensive intensity has faltered and they have given up many more points than usual.

If their defense stays like this, we might be seeing this sooner than later in the Tourney this year:

Coug Center (CougC): You are absolutely correct about the defense being the key for the Bruins. I wasn't a big believer in them early because of some disturbing defensive numbers, but during the four-game win streak that proceeded losing three of four, the Bruins' defensive efficiencies were all between 81 and 93. That is spectacular. Now? The defense hasn't just been suspect -- it's been flat awful.

If you're going to be a perimeter-oriented team, you better play great defense. The Bruins could still win a couple of games in the Tournament with hot shooting, but you're not going to go to the Final Four with that kind of D.

CGB: California Golden Blogs: I'm not sure that that Bruins team is not going to the Final 4 unless they put their Sweet 16 round in Pauley and have Steve Lavin, Jordan Farmar and Kevin Craft officiate. Which could very well happen.

The Bruins were able to get by with one of the most unwatchable teams in history last year, but they are much weaker than last year, they're getting bulldozed in a conference that is weaker than it was last year, and they don't have the consistency to win four in a row. They could get bounced at any time. Either that or East Coast bball is going to get a rude awakening.

Click to continue...

CC-LS: Conquest Chronicles: Does anyone else remember the game in the tourney last year that UCLA played against Texas A&M? The refs literally would not let them lose that game. Check out this no call:

http://images.ballhype.com/media/uploads/ballhype/photos_large/2008/03/25/bad_call.jpg

Anyways, don't Bruins fans hate Steve Lavin anyways? Or is that just the people on BN?

CC-Paragon: Trust me they all hate Lavin...he is the anti-wooden, I mean Anti-Christ

Hey guys thought you guys would love this...

http://www.insidesocal.com/usc/archives/2009/02/top-college-cit.html

talk about clueless...

from the comments on CGB I think he is way off base...

CGB: I remember that game for exactly the same reason. My favorite part about that play was that BruinsNation posted a photo of the same play and used it as an example of GOOD defense by Josh Shipp (he's the one grabbing the shooter's wrist). You may fault BruinsNation for being so completely biased that they look beyond it, but it takes an unbelievable amount of arrogance to EMBRACE this play as a highlight. My hat is off to them.

This is actually a perfect example of UCLA basketball under Howland. Usually the Bruins just bump opponents with their bodies instead of grabbing them, but Howland's defensive philosophy remains the same: hammer the opposition at every moment and dare the refs to call it. The refs usually don't and the bruins usually win. Fortunately for everyone else, they're just not that good this year so they're losing games.

And that's that! A little free wheeling, maybe even fast and loose, but hey, its the 21st century and inter-blog networking/communication is the wave of the future. Also, if anyone has any feedback or thoughts on the new format please fire away.

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Quibble

I don’t think your analysis properly analyzes Aboya. You state:

I really think UCLA’s front court will ultimately decide their fate. The only way they get to the final four is if Alfred Aboya plays at the level he played against Notre Dame and manages to stay out of foul trouble for 4 games in a row. Not impossible, just incredibly unlikely.

IIRC, Aboya has yet to foul out of a game this year (he might have done so once but certainly not more than that.) Further, he is playing a t a very high level right now-his Notre Dame effort was undeniably his best, but he is close to averaging a double-double since the Notre Dame game and playing excellent defense as well. I relaize you aren’t paying as close attention to UCLA as you are to USC, but defensively our problems are on the perimeter and not on the interior-we’re getting beat off the dribble and not rotating out to shooters quickly enough. Look at who has been lighting it up against us-Rochestie, Christopher, etc.-all wings or PG. That means we need better defense up top to deny dribble penetration. I think what will decide our fate is Collison’s defense.

If UCLA loses in the tournament, it will likely be to a team with quick PG and solid shooters. The opponent need not have a great front court or outstanding interior game.

by ucladj89 on Mar 2, 2009 6:41 AM PST reply actions

Indeed

The PAC 10 is chock-full of lightning quick PG’s, how come both Ucla and ’ SC can’t land one in our starting rotations? Jerome Randle (Cal) is probably the best point guard in the country that no one is talking about.

As much as I hate to admit this, I wouldn’t count Howland’s 5 and bench at tall this year. Will they make it to the Sweet 16? They’ve got as good as a chance as anybody, their bigs seem to light it up during tournament time. Aboya is a monster with the TV cameras on him. Will they make it to the Elite 8 or Final 4? The pressure is on Holiday and Collison, they can’t let their defensive pressure go lax AND they must show up on the scoring side themselves- hugely. Otherwise. . . . .that’s Ben Howland they’ve got over there.

Comer4tide to Nico2.0: "How come I've never heard of any of your random songs?"
Todd to Comer: "Because if you had, he wouldn't listen to it. BOOM. Roasted."
Nico to Todd: "Shouldn't you be off voguing somewhere?"

by BixBeiderbecke on Mar 2, 2009 8:00 AM PST up reply actions

Well, Collison is one of those quick PG

but for some reason, he isn’t playing as well out on the perimeter as expected. Some have speculated that he’s never been a great individual defender and has relied more than previously understood on the ability of Luc Richard to close things down when he would get beat off the dribble. Also, previous UCLA defensive stoppers included Afflalo and Westbrook, and they often matched up against the quick PG and Collison wasn’t asked to take the PG at all times like now. Still, he played some pretty good defense against Cal and if he can just get back to a solid defensive footing I think we can go to the Sweet 16 and perhaps beyond.

by ucladj89 on Mar 2, 2009 12:02 PM PST up reply actions

Collison

He sure as hell ain’t Isaiah Thomas (UW) quick. He’s not even Nic Wise quick. Hell, I can say Hackett is fast. But he certainly isn’t lightning quick.

Those PG’s are in a class all themselves as far as quickness and penetration is concerned.

by BixBeiderbecke on Mar 2, 2009 3:31 PM PST up reply actions

Collison isn't Randall, Thomas or Wise quick

but then again, those are two of the nation’s fastest and quickest point guards. One thing to keep in mind is that all three of those guards are small (Wise and Randall are the tallest of the three at 5’10") and play on teams that are offensive minded. None of the three play exceptional defense and in a system like Floyd or Howland’s, where defense is a priority, they would not only have issues man on man defensively, but would also create issues from a team defense standpoint. Now that’s not to say that they’re not outstanding point guards because they are, but they do have some issues and would not fit in everyone’s system (although some would argue you change your system to fit those players). Then again, there are very few point guards that would fit every system.

by Ryan Rosenblatt on Mar 2, 2009 5:29 PM PST up reply actions

Hey rye

How do you see the PAC-10 tournament shaping up? Hypothetically, say the Bruins win the tournament- do you see the carry-over of winning being seeded in the West an advantage for them in the NCAA tourney? I honestly don’t think Howland’s boys have peaked just yet. When/if they peak following/during the PAC 10 tournament, they seem to just keep lighting it up in their regionals and on to the sweet 16’s. Historically, Howland has gotten the most and best out of his teams in the NCAA’s. I would never put money against them. (I know I’m not supposed to say or feel this way, but hot-damn! he’s done some of his best coaching against some of the best of the national teams in the NCAA’s. And I respect the hell out of him for it)

by BixBeiderbecke on Mar 2, 2009 7:40 PM PST up reply actions

Not rye, and I'm sure he'll have a different opinion

but I think ASU or UCLA will win. Washington is a good team, but receives such a marked home-court advantage from foul calls and they are not likely to receive the ridiculous calls on a “neutral” court, and this will not allow them to win. ASU still has the best 1-2 punch in the conference with Harden and Pendergraph and they have won on the road IIRC. UCLA’s losses in conference have been close except for Arizona and Washington on the road, and they only lost to ASU in Pauley after a freak offensive drought and might have won the game at ASU if not for the blown charging call on Collison at the end of the game. I’d say the dark horses are WSU and Cal-both shoot the ball so well, and Rochestie is hot, if they shoot well and stay hot, they can win. I don’t see USC winning because of the alleged internal dissension and this year they seem to be less than the sum of their parts. Nobody else has a chance IMHO.

by ucladj89 on Mar 3, 2009 7:28 AM PST up reply actions

I would have to agree

with you almost 100%. (I’m a Trojan, so it’s always gotta be “almost” between you and me, no?). Harden can be stopped, we’ve shown how it can be done. I think it’s up to you guys and Washington.

Where’s Dragovich gone these days? That cat can show up and he has proven to hit that 3. He’s got insane touch from the outside. When you guys are on your shooting touch, you guys just close the door on your opponents.

I would love it if Coach Floyd went out and did the impossible and won the PAC-10. Hey! A guy can dream can’t he?

by BixBeiderbecke on Mar 3, 2009 8:52 AM PST up reply actions

I think it'll be a UCLA Washington final

I think we’re going to beat ASU in one semifinal. It’s just too tough to beat a team three times in one year and I think Washington will get a break when Cal is upset in the quarterfinals so they get an easier semifinal game. That final will be a very, very close game and could come down to how the officials call the game. If they let the players play then our double team will be very effective, but if they call it tight we’ll have to give them space, which benefits their shooters.

After the Pac 10 tournament, it’s really impossible to tell. I have no doubt that we’ll be playing better than we have all year because Howland’s teams do that, but the tournament is so matchup dependent that trying to predict without a bracket is nearly impossible. If I had to guess right now I’d say we’re a Sweet 16 team with the possibility to make the Final Four if we catch a break and a top seeded team in our bracket is upset. I don’t see a Final Four in our future, but I can imagine such a scenario. Malcolm Lee has done a lot to shore up our perimeter defense in stretches lately and Drew Gordon is getting more minute inside where he’s rebounding well and his energy is keeping more balls alive on the offensive glass. How the tournament will play out though is so matchup dependent though and if I had to rank teams based on how I think they’ll be playing in the tournament, I’d have us around 10-12, which is a Sweet 16 team.

by Ryan Rosenblatt on Mar 3, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions

As always

I enjoy reading yours and ucladj’s take on things both Trojan and Bruin. Good luck to you guys. (say a prayer for our Trojans this year please. Next year, it’ll hopefully be a different basketball story for us and our beleaguered Coach Floyd)

sidenote: I read Jerry Crowe’s column 2 story today regarding Sidney Wicks. That guy went 86-4 in 3 years at Ucla? That’s just crazy. It should be criminal. 86 – 4. Let that just sink in for moment or two. Bananas.

by BixBeiderbecke on Mar 3, 2009 6:07 PM PST up reply actions