Myth Buster: Giving a coach two seasons IS usually enough

by Paragon SC on Oct 20, 2009 1:59 PM PDT

I found this post on WeAreSC interesting...

Generally, a new Pac10 coach makes his mark in his second year in charge.
There are eight coaches who coached long enough to judge whether their performance
in year 2 was an indicator of how they would perform from that date forward.
In all eight cases, the performance of that coach in year 2 was a strong indicator
of the success that coach would have from that year forward.

Here is a summary of the eight:

1. Pete Carroll in year 2 took the Trojans to #1 in the conference and #2 in the nation (Sagarin power rank). After year 1, he has AVERAGED exactly that same result: #2 in nation and #1 in conference!

2. Jeff Tedford in year 2 took the Cal Bears to #4 in the conference and #20 in the nation. After year 1, he has AVERAGED a finish of #4 in conference and #19 in the nation.

3. Mike Riley in year 2 took Oregon State to #3 in conference and #11 in the nation.
After year 1, he has AVERAGED a finish of #4 in conference and #28 in the nation.

4. Bob Stoops in year 2 took Arizona to #8 in conference and #62 in the nation.
After year 1, he has AVERAGED a finish of #8 in conference and #60 in the nation.

5. Dennis Erickson in year 2 took Oregon State to # 4 in conference and #39 in the nation. After year 1, he AVERAGED a finish of #4 in conference and #26 in the nation.

6. Koetter in year 2 took ASU to #6 in conference and #25 in the nation.
After year 1, he AVERAGED a finish of #5 in conference and #33 in the nation.

7. Karl Dorrell in year 2 took Ucla to #5 in the conference and #19 in the nation.
After year 1, he AVERAGED a finish of #4 in conference and #22 in the nation.

8. Bill Doba in year 2 took Washington State to #8 in the conference and #52 in the nation. After year 1, he AVERAGED a finish of #8 in conference and #50 in the nation.

How do you make an average out of 1 year? Regardless, I did find some of the numbers interesting.

Debate away...

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Conquest Chronicles' writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Conquest Chronicles' writers or editors.

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That was eye opening

The assumption is obviously that a coach needs at least 5 years so he can be working completely with his own guys, but this sure does look pretty compelling (and, a bit disheartening for Cal fans). I wonder if this trend has held with prior Pac-10 coaches as well, as my inner-skeptic thinks that perhaps Carroll’s dominance may skew things just a bit.

On ATQ I'm known as JSoCal Oski

It's spelled J-etc

by SoCal Oski on Oct 21, 2009 12:15 PM PDT reply actions

What's interesting about compiling data is

that 3 (that’s three) teams can “average” a #4 ranking in the conference. It’s as if there’s no #2 or #3 team in the conference? How weird is that?

I’m sure the author meant Mike Stoops instead of Bob Stoops at Arizona.

Insofar as the “tenured” coaches in the Pac 10- we have at least 3 teams that “average” better than #28 ranking in the nation. That’s not too shabby. Interesting enough, there wasn’t any compiled data that I saw in your post regarding Bellotti at Oregon. (he just might be the missing #2 or #3 conference, and I’m sure as hell he left the program at Eugene with a better than #20 national average ranking too)

"As for being a Raiders fan, I wouldn't wish that fucking shit on anybody." [the venerable OTS at Roll Bama Roll}

by BixBeiderbecke on Oct 21, 2009 9:33 PM PDT reply actions

I think the “average” in-conference rank may be due to ties, or the fact that between 2 – 5 the teams so consistently leap around that none is consistent enough to pull out a higher slot. For instance, in Cal’s case the Tedford years have seen everything from a #1 (shared) finish to a #6 or 7 finish.

In any case, this bodes poorly for the folks at Ucla.

On ATQ I'm known as JSoCal Oski

It's spelled J-etc

by SoCal Oski on Oct 22, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions

You know PC did it in less than 5 and unlike the Weasel he didn't over recruit and kick kids to the curb.

The wrath of 102 and nestor will come down will come down on Neu in the end, then they will have maybe Norton as head coach.

Paul D. Kelley

It's not about doing your job, But can you do it with a TENNIS BALL in your throat!

by so.cal.native1952 on Oct 21, 2009 9:43 PM PDT reply actions

"How do you make an average out of 1 year? Regardless, I did find some of the numbers interesting."

What he’s saying is that in every year AFTER the first they finished at a certain position. In other words if a coach was there 9 years then in year 2-9 he averaged whatever finish the guy is saying.

Its worded kind of weird.

[DELETED ZOMG NO POLITICS]

by bluemax on Oct 23, 2009 11:48 AM PDT reply actions