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Beauty contest beat-downs?

You could see this coming a mile a way. Those who vote in the polls can be a fickle bunch, as some who moved USC up in the polls might be taking a second look. 

Case in point: Matt Hayes of the Sporting News...

No. 1 USC: Bear with me, everyone. The purpose of the poll isn't necessarily to slot teams/increase-decrease value as they win or lose. It's to define an entire body of work. Which win(s) looks better this fall: LSU at Auburn, Georgia at Arizona State or USC at home against Ohio State?

I think we can all confidently agree that this Ohio State team -- at least after four weeks -- is a shadow of the Buckeye teams that deserved to play in the past two seasons' national title games (no matter how much everyone whines). So the Trojans blew out Ohio State. Yeah, so? See where I'm headed? And don't even get me started about Virginia, which is just God-awful.

Can you say "buyers' remorse"?

This is a way to set-up for USC to be the odd man out if there are more than two teams undefeated, or if there is a one-loss team with a theoretically stronger-schedule record at the end of the year.  The rationale will be that the weak Pac-10 this year doesn't count for much, and that the out of conference teams that USC has played were less than advertised.

There are logical flaws all through this thinking, and it's because of the early season rush to judgment. Look at the rankings and tell me where is the logic in all of this:

  • USC gets ranked #1 for beating Virginia and Ohio State
  • However, Virginia sucks, and the 20 starters that came back to Ohio State had their mojo stolen
  • The SEC continues their tradition of scheduling FCS teams to pad wins but that doesn't stop LSU, UGA, Alabama, or UF from looking like world beaters
  • The Pac-10 just blows - hell, Arizona State lost to UNLV, but...
  • Georgia came to Tempe to play, as Hayes states, "a quality opponent in a wild atmosphere"

Hayes needs to make up his mind who sucks and who doesn't, and why. If Hayes is going to praise UGA for traveling to Tempe he should then praise SC for traveling to Charlottesville - because apparently distance cancels suck, in his view.

This isn't about starting another fight about conference strength: no-one is disputing that the SEC plays some fine football and that there are some absolutely knock down drag out games between some of the top teams in the conference. But when you play the team A beat team B who (almost) lost to team C game, you look at LSU beating an Auburn team that barely beat Mississippi State,  and Georgia beating an Arizona State team whose only wins came against Northern Arizona and Stanford. So far I guess I am not seeing the consistency in Hayes' logic.

This comes back to the weakness of early season polls. I thought that SC was ranked too high for going #1 after the Virginia game, it was too soon. It may still be too soon, in fact - we're still waiting for SC's third game.

As I noted earlier USC needs to get through the Pac-10 in convincing fashion. Everyone is saying it in just about every article I read. I have seen it on message boards and in the traditional media. USC needs to keep the pressure on the rest of the conference and doubly so on Notre Dame!

But what does that mean in reality? Does it mean that to convince voters, USC is going to have to channel their inner Urban Meyer and play for style points as well as the win? I realize that margin of victory means nothing to the computers but with lazy voting from coaches and writers who can't possibly see all the games, you have to wonder if they will respond well to clear messages in the form of lopsided wins.

With strong teams in the SEC and the Big 12, in other words, you could argue that USC has no choice but to essentially run up the score on any and all of their upcoming opponents, and make it a beauty contest beat down. That to me seems stupid for the polls, and disrespectful to our opponents (except ucla and Notre Dame who would do the same to us), and I'm pissed that this how people are thinking before it's even October.

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Matt Hayes Needs to stop Smoking his front yard!

Looking at his vaunted SEC conference the bottom 50% Arkansas, Mississippi State, Mississippi,Kentucky,Tennessee,and South Carolina have comparable win/loss records to the Lower 50% of the Pac10. I guess this weeks LSU/Ole’ Miss match up is supposed to be in his mind some kind of an epic game with LSU a 25 pt favorite….same as USC/Oregon State. What’s with these SEC nut cases, half of their conference are also ran’s every season
Give me a break!

by alfa1 on Sep 24, 2008 10:48 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Whatever...

Whether USC runs the table or not, there will be an inevitable game where we barely win (or lose). The media can talk whatever smack they want about SC, but the fact of the matter is that if SC runs the table, there is no way they can be left out of the BCS conversation. No other team in the national title talk plays every game against a Big six school (or ND). If the Trojans have the same record as either of the teams selected to play in the title game and the BCS doesn’t select us, I think that will be the end of the BCS.

Andy Roddick has the most wimbledon titles in the world. He just hides them in Federer's trophy case

by premthegrem on Sep 24, 2008 7:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

A couple of caveats:

1. Arizona State and Virginia are not comparable teams. The Sun Devils got caught looking ahead and took for granted a U.N.L.V. team that turned out to be better than they expected. If Arizona State and Virginia played one another at a neutral site next Saturday, few folks would pick the Cavaliers even to compete, much less win. Whatever struggles the Pac-10 may have had in the early part of this season, the West Coast league’s woes are nothing compared to the A.C.C.’s troubles.

2. Even discounting the intensity which underdogs bring to conference rivalry games (which helps explain why South Carolina challenges Georgia, Vanderbilt challenges Florida, and Ole Miss challenges Louisiana State on a regular basis), it is not accurate to claim that half of the S.E.C. member institutions “are also ran’s every season.” Of the six lesser programs in the league, Arkansas has been to a Capital One Bowl, a Citrus Bowl, three Cotton Bowls, and two S.E.C. championship games in the last decade; Kentucky has won back-to-back Music City Bowls over Clemson and Florida State; Mississippi posted a ten-win Cotton Bowl championship season as recently as 2003; Mississippi State won 26 games and attended three bowls and a conference championship game between 1998 and 2000; and South Carolina beat Ohio State in back-to-back New Year’s Day bowl games in 2000 and 2001. Some of those feats are more impressive than others, obviously, but let’s not pretend that any team other than Vanderbilt is a perennial bottom-feeder.

That said, your basic thesis is correct, Paragon SC. B.C.S. conference teams deserve credit for going on the road to face B.C.S. conference competition in non-league games and Southern California, which has appeared the most dominant of any team in the land this year and has what unquestionably is the best scalp (the win over Ohio State, which surpasses even L.S.U.’s impressive out-of-conference win over Virginia Tech last year), deserves to be No. 1.

If it’s any consolation to you, premthegrem is right that the Trojans’ grip on the No. 1 spot appears pretty solid and it’s a safe bet that, if U.S.C. goes undefeated, the Men of Troy will be playing in Miami, even if the Big 12 and S.E.C. champions also post unbeaten ledgers. A few stray writers aside, the majority will never shun the most accomplished program of the new millennium. That will not happen.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Sep 24, 2008 7:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

A brief follow-up

As is my custom, I was cruising the blogosphere while eating lunch and I noticed something about the A.P. poll you have listed on the sidebar.

No. 1 U.S.C. has 1,621 total points. No. 2 Oklahoma has 1,484 total points. No. 6 Missouri has 1,360 total points.

In other words, the gap between No. 1 and No. 2 (137 points) is larger than the gap between No. 2 and No. 6 (124 points).

As long as the Trojans keep winning, they have absolutely nothing to worry about where the national championship is concerned. There is no chance of an unbeaten Southern California team being the odd man out in 2008.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Sep 25, 2008 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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