Another look at OOC scheduling and its impact on conference strength
by anh_sc79 on Aug 22, 2008 12:57 PM PDT
12 comments
We’ve seen a number of subjective conference rankings all over the CFB media. Any kind of attempt to rank conferences will consist of perception (subjective) and facts (objective). Let’s ask ourselves – what makes some conferences appear "stronger" and "tougher"? Is it a number of bowl eligible teams? Is it league’s overall W-L record? Since rankings play important role in determination of BCS and other bowl participants, perhaps some conferences (intentionally or unintentionally) game the system by favorable scheduling, both within conference and OOC. On the opposite hand, some conferences try to create more interesting schedule and end up hurting their members (ahem… Pac-10… ahem)…
With addition of 12th regular season game, only 1 BCS conference (Pac-10) decided to add an extra conference game (Big East technically couldn't do it) instead of an extra OOC game. Why does that matter? Because an addition of extra conference game will guarantee an additional loss for 50% of the conference members. Consequently, the worse overall records will affect voters and chances of reaching a BCS bowl game.
We all know that voters (both media and coaches) are not very sophisticated in terms of looking at the large picture and analyzing the entire body of work throughout the season. They usually look at overall win-loss record and probably W-L record of the conference to determine which of 9-3 teams should be ranked higher. Simply put, they don't have time to go through more sophisticated analysis.
Teams and conferences can cheat on the system and pad up the conference and individual records (Kansas last year, LSU and Texas Tech this year). Instead of adding another conference game, conferences that play 8 or less conference games will allow their members to schedule another "patsy". By playing 4 patsies, all you need is to win 2 out of 8 conference games to get bowl eligible (see Alabama in 2006).
I looked up 2008 OOC schedules to determine if some conferences were "cheating" the system. The following is the expected winning percentage for all BCS conferences record and average team record.
SEC: 58.5% (winning percentage) - 7.02-4.98 (average team record)
Big Ten: 58.5% or 7.02 - 4.98
Big-12: 58.2% or 6.98 - 5.02
Big East: 57.0% or 6.84 - 5.16
ACC: 55.3% or 6.65 - 5.35
Pac-10: 53.1% or 6.43 – 5.67
Methodology:
Give each team +0.5 wins for every conference game (every conference game means one loss and one win for the conference) PLUS
For OOC allocate following points:
* Patsy +1 (Div-1aa (home or away) or weak mid-major (home))
* Weak mid-major (away) +0.75
* Quality mid-major with recent bowl game or ranked in top-25 (home) +0.75
* Quality mid-major with recent bowl game or ranked in top-25 (away) +0.50
* BCS team (home) +0.5
* BCS (away) +0.25
Few things jump out:
- Pac-10's additional game really hurts the overall winning percentage and average W-L record. Since other BCS conferences aren't likely adding another conference game, it may benefit the conference to drop the 9th game and allow teams to pad-up their schedule
- ACC plays the toughest OOC schedule of all 11-12 member conferences (Big 12, SEC, ACC, Big Ten)
- SEC, Big Ten and Big-12 have too many patsies on their schedule and their record (and number of bowl eligibile teams) is inflated by the weak OOC schedule
- USC (toughest OOC in the country) has the lowest score as expected. LSU and Indiana have the highest
Here is complete breakdown of every team and conference:
SEC (add +4 for 8 conference games)
SEC East:
Tennessee 7.25: @UCLA (+0.25), UAB (+1), NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+1), WYOMING (+1)
Kentucky 7.25: @Louisville (+0.25), NORFOLK STATE (+1), MIDDLE TENNESSEE (+1), WESTERN KENTUCKY (+1)
South Carolina 6.75: NC STATE (+0.5), WOFFORD (+1), UAB (+1), @Clemson (+0.25)
Florida 6.5: HAWAII (+0.75), MIAMI (+0.5), THE CITADEL (+1), @Florida State (+0.25)
Vandebilt 6.5: @Miami OH (+0.75), RICE (+1), DUKE (+0.5), @Wake Forest (+0.25)
Georgia 6.5: GA SOUTHERN (+1), CMU (+0.75), @Arizona State(+0.25), GEORGIA TECH (+0.5)
SEC West:
Alabama 7.5: CLEMSON (+0.5), TULANE (+1), WESTERN KENTUCKY (+1), ARKANSAS STATE(+1)
Arkansas 7: WESTERN ILLINOIS (+1), LA MONROE (+1), @Texas (+0.25), TULSA (+0.75)
Auburn 7: LA MONROE (+1), SOUTHERN MISS (+0.75), @West Virginia (+0.25), TENNESSEE-MARTIN (+1)
LSU 7.75: APP STATE (+1), TROY (+0.75), NORTH TEXAS (+1), TULANE (+1)
Ole Miss 7.25: MEMPHIS (+1), @Wake Forest (+0.25), SAMFORD (+1), LA-MONROE (+1)
MSU 7: @LA Tech (+0.75), SE LOUISIANA (+1), @GA Tech (+0.25), MIDDLE TENNESSEE (+1)
Total expected SEC record is: 84.25-59.75 (0.585), or 7.02-4.98 on average
Pac-10 (add +4.5 for 9 conference games)
Arizona 7.25: IDAHO (+1), TOLEDO (+1), @New Mexico (+0.75)
ASU 7: NAU (+1), UNLV (+1), GEORGIA (+0.5)
California 6.25: MSU (+0.5), at Maryland (+0.25), COLORADO STATE (+1)
Oregon 6.5: UTAH STATE (+1), at Purdue (+0.25), BOISE STATE (+0.75)
Oregon State 6: @Penn State (+0.25), HAWAII (+0.75), @Utah (+0.5)
USC 5.75: @Virginia (+0.25), OHIO STATE(+0.5), NOTRE DAME (+0.5)
Stanford 6.25: @TCU (+0.5), SAN JOSE STATE (+1), @Notre Dame (+0.25)
UCLA 6.25: TENNESSEE (+0.5), at BYU (+0.5), FRESNO STATE (+0.75)
Washington 6.25: BYU (+0.75), OKLAHOMA (+0.5), NOTRE DAME (+0.5)
WSU 6.75 (13 games): OKLAHOMA STATE (+0.5), @Baylor (+0.25), PORTLAND STATE (+1), @Hawaii (+0.5)
Total expected Pac-10 record is: 64.25 - 56.75 (0.531) or 6.43 - 5.68 on average
Big Ten (add +4 for 8 conference games)
Illinois 7.25: MISSOURI (+0.5), EASTERN ILLINOIS (+1), LA LAFAYETEE(+1), @Western Michigan (+0.75)
Indiana 7.75: WESTERN KENTUCKY (+1), MURRAY STATE (+1), BALL STATE(+1), CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+0.75)
Iowa 6.75: MAIN (+1), FIU (+1), IOWA STATE (+0.5), @Pitt (+0.25)
Michigan 7: UTAH (+0.75), MIAMI OH (+1), @Notre Dame (+0.25), TOLEDO (+1)
Michigan State 6.5: @California (+0.25), EASTERN MICHIGAN (+1), FAU (+0.75), NOTRE DAME (+0.5)
Minnesota 7.5: NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+1), MONTANA STATE (+1), @Bowling Green (+0.75), FAU (+0.75)
Northwestern 6.75: SYRACUSE (+0.5), @Duke (+0.25), SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (+1), OHIO (+1)
Ohio State 7: YOUNGSTOWN STATE (+1), OHIO (+1), at USC (+0.25), TROY (+0.75)
Penn State 6.75: COASTAL CAROLINA (+1), OREGON STATE (+0.5), @Syracuse (+0.25), TEMPLE (+1)
Purdue 6.5: NORTHERN COLORADO (+1), OREGON (+0.5), CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+0.75), @Notre Dame (+0.25)
Wisconsin 7.5: AKRON (+1), MARSHALL (+1), @Fresno Sate (+0.5), CAL POLY (+1)
Total expected Big-10 record is: 77.25-54.75 (0.585) or 7.02 – 4.98 record on average
ACC (add +4 for 8 conference games)
Atlantic
Boston College 7: @Kent State (+0.75), UCF (+0.75), RHODE ISLAND (+1), NOTRE DAME (+0.5)
Clemson 7: ALABAMA (+0.5), THE CITADEL (+1), SOUTH CAROLINA STATE (+1), SOUTH CAROLINA (+0.5)
Florida State 7: WESTERN CAROLINA (+1), TENN-CHATTANOOGA (+1), COLORADO (+0.5), FLORIDA (+0.5)
Maryland 7.25: DELAWARE (+1), at MTSU (+0.75), CAL (+0.5), EASTERN MICHIGAN (+1)
NC State 6.5: @South Carolina (+0.25), WILLIAM & MARY (+1), EAST CAROLINA (+0.75), SOUTH FLORIDA (+0.5)
Wake Forest 6: @Baylor (+0.25), MISSISSIPPI (+0.5), NAVY (+0.75), VANDERBILT (+0.5)
Coastal
Duke 6.5: JAMES MADISON (+1), NORTHWESTERN (+0.5), NAVY (+0.75), @Vanderbilt (+0.25)
Georgia Tech 6.75: JAX STATE(+1), MISS STATE (+0.5), GARDNER-WEBB (+1), @Georgia (+0.25)
Miami 6.25: CHARL.SOUTHERN (+1), @Florida (+0.25), @Texas A&M (+0.25), UCF (+0.75)
North Carolina 6.25: MCNEESE STATE (+1), at Rutgers (+0.25), UCONN (+0.5), NOTRE DAME (+0.5)
Virginia 6.5: USC (+0.5), RICHMOND (+1), @UConn (+0.25), EAST CAROLINA (+0.75)
Virginia Tech 6.75: @East Carolina (+0.5), FURMAN (+1), @Nebraska (+0.25), WESTERN KENTUCKY (+1)Total expected ACC record is: 79.75-64.25 (0.554) or 6.65 – 5.35 record on average
Big-12 (add +4 for 8 conference games)
North
Colorado 6.5: COLORADO STATE (+0.75), EASTERN WASHINGTON (+1), WEST VIRGINIA (+0.5), @Florida State (+0.25)
Iowa State 7: SOUTH DAKOTA SU (+1), KENT STATE (+1), @Iowa (+0.25), @UNLV (+0.75)
Kansas 7.25: FIU (+1), LA TECH (+1), @USF(+0.25), SAM HOUSTON (+1)
KSU 7.25: NORTH TEXAS (+1), MONTANA STATE (+1), @Louisville (+0.25), LA LAFAYETTE (+1)
Missouri 7.25: ILLINOIS (+0.5), SE MISSOURI (+1), NEVADA (+0.75), BUFFALO (+1)
Nebraska 7.5: WESTERN MICHIGAN (+1), SJSU (+1), NMSU (+1), VA TECH (+0.5)
South
Baylor 6.25: WAKE FOREST (+0.5), NW STATE (+1), WASHINGTON STATE (+0.5), @UCONN (+0.25)
Oklahoma 6.5: TENN-CHATTANOOGA (+1), CINCINNATI (+0.5), @UW (+0.25), TCU (+0.75)
Ok State 6.75: @WSU(+0.25), HOUSTON (+0.75), MISSOURI STATE (+1), TROY (+0.75)
Texas 7: FAU (+0.75), @UTEP (+0.75), ARKANSAS (+0.5), RICE (+1)
Texas A&M 7: ARKANSAS STATE (+1), @New Mexico (+0.5), MIAMI (+0.5), ARMY (+1)
Texas Tech 7.5: EAST WASHINGTON (+1), @Nevada (+0.5), SMU (+1), UMASS (+1)Total expected Big-12 record is: 83.75-60.25 (0.582) or 6.98 – 5.02 record on average
Big East (add +3.5 for 7 conference games)
Cincinnati 7.25: E.KENTUCKY (+1), @Oklahoma (+0.25), MIAMI OH (+1), @Akron (+0.75), @Marshall (+0.75)
UConn 6.5: HOFSTRA (+1), @Temple (+0.75), VIRGINIA (+0.5), BAYLOR (+0.5), @UNC (+0.25)
Louisville 7.25: KENTUCKY (+0.5), TENN TECH (+1), KSU (+0.5), @Memphis (+0.75), MTSU (+1)
Pittsburgh 6.75: BOWLING GREEN (+1), BUFFALO (+1), IOWA (+0.5), @Navy (+0.5), @Notre Dame (+0.25)
Rutgers 7.25: FRESNO STATE (+0.75), UNC (+0.5), @Navy (+0.5), MORGAN STATE (+1), ARMY (+1)
USF 6.5: TENN MARTIN (+1), @UFC(+0.5), KANSAS(+0.5), @FIU (+0.75), @NCSU (+0.25)
Syracuse 6.5: @Northwestern (+0.25), AKRON (+1), PENN STATE (+0.5), NORTHEASTERN (+1), @Notre Dame (+0.25)
WVU 6.75: VILLANOVA (+1), @East Carolina(+0.5), @Colorado (+0.25), MARSHALL (+1), AUBURN (+0.5)
Total expected Big East record is: 54.75 - 41.25 (0.570) or 6.84 - 5.16 on average
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Conquest Chronicles' writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Conquest Chronicles' writers or editors.
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Unreal...
I could care less about the percentage. For the most part the PAC-10 has the moral high ground for playing tough OOC opponents and they HAVE TO play each other. There is no dodging a potential trap game or tough opponent.
The SEC will continue to talk about their superior talent league wide but until they play a round robin their schedule will always reek of being incomplete.
by Paragon SC on Aug 22, 2008 4:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yup and I know for Oregon
Good teams back out of playing us. We were supposed to play another decent team this year until they bailed and we had go with Utah State.
I have always respected that the Trojans play a difficult OOC schedule unlike say most SEC schools.
Proud member of Duck nation!
by skywaker9 on Aug 26, 2008 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
round robin vs conference championships
The funny thing about the conferences that play championships is that their fans try and take a moral high ground about how their conference champ has to play an extra game before a bowl, Pac 10 isn’t playing by the rules, etc.
Last time I checked, there was no requirement that a conference has to be big enough that you can’t have a complete round robin competition. If the Big 12 or the SEC want to have a championship, that’s fine, but you can’t seriously question that whoever wins the Pac-10 deserves that conference champ bowl berth at a minimum, because you can’t get away from the fact that they have the best, no “what if, if only they had played, blah blah” record in the conference.
by DC Trojan on Aug 22, 2008 9:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There is an NCAA bylaw. . .
. . .that requires conferences with more than 10 teams to actually have a championship game. I’m not sure where it is or when it was implemented but ??? Which means, as long as we’re still the PAC 10, our champion will always be dictated by the “every game is a playoff game” formula. And personally, I like it the way it is. (splitting up a conference due to the high number of participating teams is, in itself, a way or means to “game” or “pad” your W – L. I’m not of the firm opinion this is the case, it is what it is. And what it is, is- “things CAN be gamed” – for lack of a better word.
This is a very thorough and incisive look into the OOC scheduling for D-1 football. I’m curious, how the PAC-10 teams scheduled their OOC opponents PRIOR to BigBallsPete coming on board and basically declaring his famous “anyone, anywhere, anytime” doctrine of scheduling. (much like the “going-for-it” on 4th downs and super-tough scheduling for early season OOC opponents, I have a strong feeling BBPete changed the paradigm).
"Surround yourself with people who can't live without football" - 1st tenet of 3 for Bear Bryant's 3 Rules of Coaching . . . . .
by BixBeiderbecke on Aug 24, 2008 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
how do you explain the Big 11
Big 11 doesnt have a championship
by frak on Aug 24, 2008 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Odd number
And different levels.
First off, it’s still referred to as only the Big 10 (white lettering for 11 is the only thing that gives it away.)
Up and until Notre Dame “finally” joins them, there really is no need for a championship game. Again, I wrote- “I’m not sure” where it is or where it’s at- but it is an NCAA bylaw that requires the splitting of a conference into divisions (even numbered, duh)- and due to the amount of limitations for amount of games (I’m guessing) throughout a football season- a determination of “champion” would be played in a “one-game” championship game (top teams from each division. see SEC, Big 12, etc, etc, and so forth).
Not sure if the Big Ten (and cutesy JoPa/Penn State) play each of everyone in their conference, nor the status of how their champion is determined (it’s 7 AM! just got back from jiujitsu AND I’m hungry, need a shower, got to get on the good foot, NO TIME)
Discuss amongst yourselves, figure it out- get back to me- I’ll be checking in periodically throughout the the day! (just kidding, not really)
"Surround yourself with people who can't live without football" - 1st tenet of 3 for Bear Bryant's 3 Rules of Coaching . . . . .
by BixBeiderbecke on Aug 25, 2008 7:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was totally smarmy of me. . . .
. . . sorry frak. I apologize. (especially for the last “get back to me” idioticness!)
As I said, I just came back from my workout. And I GOT WORKED THIS MORNING. My ear was all cauliflowered and bleeding a bit. (gotta get better at watching the knees while pounding on my opponent from the top position. that. . . .and get used to wearing a skullcap this month. again!)
I took my frustrations out in my words. Didn’t mean to. Sorry again. I’m a d_ck without coffee while bleeding over a keyboard in the AM. Peace.
"Surround yourself with people who can't live without football" - 1st tenet of 3 for Bear Bryant's 3 Rules of Coaching . . . . .
by BixBeiderbecke on Aug 25, 2008 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great idea
I’m curious, how the PAC-10 teams scheduled their OOC opponents PRIOR to BigBallsPete
I will check it out – as far as I know, Pac-10 always played great OOC. I will do 10 years pre and post BCS… Whenever I find time :)
by anh_sc79 on Aug 25, 2008 5:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Check this out
I just read this article:
http://www.vindy.com/news/2008/aug/26/non-conference-schedule-has-osu-critics-moaning/
It’s a pretty good read, and directly on par with what you posted anh_sc79! You’re comments are square and on the mark! Good stuff bro!
"Surround yourself with people who can't live without football" - 1st tenet of 3 for Bear Bryant's 3 Rules of Coaching . . . . .
by BixBeiderbecke on Aug 26, 2008 4:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You must have 12 teams to have a championship game
That is why the Big 11 is pursuing ND, it would allow them to hold one…
Proud member of Duck nation!
by skywaker9 on Aug 26, 2008 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ND will never join the Big 11 by choice
That means they have to share all that bowl game money with the other teams in the conference instead of keeping it all to themselves. They are doing just fine as an independent. They have special rules that only apply to them in the BCS standings. ND has it made in the shade on their own.
by frak on Aug 26, 2008 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Makes me wonder
how many more games would have been won by teams that lost their starting QBs last season. USC, Oregon, and ucla all took hits in the QB department. Now all three schools are taking injuries to their QBs to various degrees.
by frak on Aug 26, 2008 8:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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