USC vs. (t)OSU pt.5: Top 10

So sometimes you go searching through some numbers and find something, but others times things are not so clear and easy. Regardless, let's look at what I found anyways:

First off I have to say that I'm sorry. This may be the most inscrutable table I have put up so far, so I think a little explanation is in order. Rank is not end of season rank, but rank at the time the game was played*. "Score Diff" stands for score differential which is just the number of points USC scored minus the number of points the opponent scored, and it is just stated in this way to save a little space. Obviously in losses this value is negative. "Exp Off Yrds" stands for expected offensive yards which is teams offensive yards per game for the season averaged with USC's defensive yards allowed per game for that season. The reasoning behind this is that one would expect teams to sort of meet in the middle. By this I mean that when a good offensive team plays a good defensive team, you would likely expect the opponent to get a lot of yards, but less than they typically do. The same reasoning goes for "Exp Def Yrds", except the roles are reversed. Difference is simply the difference between the expectation and how USC actually performed (in terms of yards allowed for USC Def and yards gained in USC Off), and in each column a positive number is performance above expectations while a negative is performance below expectations.

Now that half of everyone who started reading this is gone, and the other half feels like they have just sat through a business meeting let's get to the meat of the matter. I originally thought that I would find USC played well above expectations in the blowout wins and play at or below expectations in the losses and close games. I thought this would reflect the intangible aspects of preparation, game planning, and motivation. It turns out that it kind of does, but the results are confusing to say the least:

In blowout wins over Arizona State, Michigan, and Oklahoma, USC performed over 100 yards total between offense and defense above expectations.  In close losses to Oregon, Texas, and a close win over Notre Dame (2005), USC performed very close to what was expected. However, in a 20 point win over Notre Dame (2006) and a 6 point win over Cal, USC performed well below expectations. Turnovers may explain the Cal game partially as USC had a +2 margin in that game, but it does not explain what happened at Notre Dame as the Irish were +1 in that game. Special teams play may have greatly affected the Notre Dame game as USC punted the ball once against seven kickoffs, and USC also did a nice job getting good field position netting a total of 118 return yards on two punts and three kickoffs. I'm still not totally sold on those explanations though, and I think this method needs to be refined**.

So if my original idea did not exactly work out, then I will just let the simple statistics speak for themselves. USC's worst loss (point wise, not emotion wise) under Pete Carroll came against Notre Dame in 2001 with a final score of 27 to 16. Since then USC has not lost a game by more than a touchdown, and even then the only teams to win by a touchdown were Oregon in 2007 and Kansas State in 2002. USC is also 11-3 against opponents ranked in the AP top 10 at the time the game was played since 2001. Its very likely that most of you have heard all of this before, but I think it is worthwhile to repeat that USC has not been blown out once under Pete Carroll. To add to that impressive statistic, the Trojans have only lost three times over the past seven seasons at home with the losses coming by an average margin of 3.3 points. There is a famous saying that says "the past is not a guaranteed predictor of future results", but I still think it is foolishness for some Ohio State Fans to be predicting a win by 10 points or more as it has not happened for over six years now and the Buckeyes cannot say the same about not having been blown out.

So that wraps up part 5, and almost wraps up this whole series of sorts. I will be writing one more installment that will kind of summarize everything said up to this point and give my final thoughts on the game, and I promise that there will not be any more tables. Thankfully the season starts pretty soon and we will actually be able watch college football instead of just speculating about it. Mark your calendars, @Virginia August 30th!

note*: One could debate the philosophical merits of using the at the time rankings, but who really cares as I did simply because it was the easier way to do it.

note**: cfbstats.com is an excellent resource, but the statistics only go back to 2004 so I was a bit limited. Perhaps a clearer trend or pattern would have shown up if I could have looked at every top 10 team played, or then again maybe not.